United States' Carbides Market Set for Modest Growth to $4.1B and 923K Tons

IndexBox has just published a new report: U.S. - Carbides - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The US carbides market is forecast for modest growth, with volume projected to reach 923K tons (CAGR +0.6%) and value to reach $4.1B (CAGR +1.3%) by 2035. After years of decline, 2024 consumption slightly increased to 864K tons valued at $3.6B, though production declined slightly to 759K tons. The US remains heavily import-dependent, with China supplying 84% of imports (102K tons), though Norway commands the highest import price at $24,839/ton. Exports fell sharply by -22.3% to 16K tons, with Canada as the primary destination. Key trends include rising import prices (+3.5% annually) and export prices (+3.8% annually), indicating changing trade dynamics despite flat domestic consumption patterns.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to grow modestly to 923K tons in volume and $4.1B in value by 2035
• US heavily import-dependent with China supplying 84% of imports by volume
• Norway commands premium import prices at $24,839 per ton
• Exports declined sharply by -22.3% to 16K tons in 2024
• Both import and export prices show sustained annual growth trends

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for carbides in the United States, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 923K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

United States's Consumption of Carbides

After four years of decline, consumption of carbides increased by less than 0.1% to 864K tons in 2024. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 892K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The value of the carbides market in the United States totaled $3.6B in 2024, increasing by 13% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $3.8B. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Production

United States's Production of Carbides

In 2024, carbides production in the United States shrank slightly to 759K tons, leveling off at 2023. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 6.1%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 804K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carbides production soared to $3.3B in 2024. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $3.4B. From 2019 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Imports

United States's Imports of Carbides

In 2024, purchases abroad of carbides decreased by less than 0.1% to 121K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 37% against the previous year. Imports peaked at 174K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, carbides imports fell to $348M in 2024. In general, imports, however, enjoyed measured growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 66% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $480M. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, China (102K tons) constituted the largest carbides supplier to the United States, with a 84% share of total imports. Moreover, carbides imports from China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Brazil (6.1K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by South Africa (4.3K tons), with a 3.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from China totaled +2.5%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Brazil (-2.5% per year) and South Africa (-8.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($146M) constituted the largest supplier of carbides to the United States, comprising 42% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Norway ($66M), with a 19% share of total imports. It was followed by South Africa, with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from China stood at +3.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Norway (+16.9% per year) and South Africa (+0.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average carbides import price stood at $2,875 per ton in 2024, reducing by -3.4% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, carbides import price increased by +39.9% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 40%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $2,977 per ton in 2023, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Norway ($24,839 per ton), while the price for the Netherlands ($697 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Norway (+13.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

United States's Exports of Carbides

In 2024, overseas shipments of carbides decreased by -22.3% to 16K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, exports showed a deep slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at 47K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carbides exports reduced to $77M in 2024. Overall, exports showed a deep slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when exports increased by 22%. The exports peaked at $163M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Canada (9.8K tons) was the main destination for carbides exports from the United States, accounting for a 61% share of total exports. Moreover, carbides exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (2.2K tons), fivefold. Norway (1.2K tons) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 7.5% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume to Canada stood at -7.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Mexico (-0.7% per year) and Norway (-19.4% per year).

In value terms, Canada ($22M), Germany ($13M) and Japan ($10M) were the largest markets for carbides exported from the United States worldwide, together accounting for 59% of total exports.

Among the main countries of destination, Japan, with a CAGR of +3.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.

Export Prices By Country

The average carbides export price stood at $4,772 per ton in 2024, increasing by 23% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated pronounced growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, carbides export price increased by +52.4% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 an increase of 33% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $5,114 per ton. From 2019 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($20,457 per ton), while the average price for exports to Norway ($1,421 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Japan (+4.5%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.