United States' Carbides Market Forecasts Modest Growth with +0.6% Volume CAGR Through 2035

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The US carbides market is forecast for modest growth over the next decade, with volume projected to reach 916K tons by 2035 at a CAGR of +0.6% and value to hit $4.1B at a CAGR of +2.0%. In 2024, consumption decreased slightly to 859K tons, while domestic production was approximately 756K tons. The US remains heavily reliant on imports, with China being the dominant supplier (84% of import volume, 42% of import value). Export volumes have seen a significant decline, falling to 18K tons in 2024. Notable price disparities exist, with Norway's import price being exceptionally high at $24,844 per ton compared to others.

Key Findings

• Market forecast shows modest growth with volume CAGR of +0.6% and value CAGR of +2.0% through 2035
• US consumption has declined for five consecutive years, falling to 859K tons in 2024
• China is the dominant import source, supplying 84% of volume but only 42% of import value
• Significant price disparities exist among suppliers, with Norway's import price 37 times higher than the Netherlands
• US exports have drastically declined, down 12.2% in 2024 to 18K tons

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for carbides in the United States, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 916K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

United States's Consumption of Carbides

In 2024, consumption of carbides decreased by -0.5% to 859K tons, falling for the fifth consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 2.5% against the previous year. Carbides consumption peaked at 890K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the carbides market in the United States was estimated at $3.3B in 2024, rising by 4.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $3.8B. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production

United States's Production of Carbides

In 2024, approx. 756K tons of carbides were produced in the United States; approximately reflecting the previous year. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the production volume increased by 6.1%. Carbides production peaked at 802K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, carbides production expanded significantly to $3B in 2024. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 22%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $3.4B. From 2019 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Imports

United States's Imports of Carbides

In 2024, overseas purchases of carbides decreased by -1.3% to 121K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 38%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 175K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, carbides imports dropped to $348M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a pronounced increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 66% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $480M. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2024, China (102K tons) constituted the largest supplier of carbides to the United States, accounting for a 84% share of total imports. Moreover, carbides imports from China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Brazil (6.1K tons), more than tenfold. South Africa (4.3K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 3.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from China stood at +2.5%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Brazil (-2.5% per year) and South Africa (-8.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($146M) constituted the largest supplier of carbides to the United States, comprising 42% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Norway ($66M), with a 19% share of total imports. It was followed by South Africa, with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from China amounted to +3.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Norway (+16.9% per year) and South Africa (+0.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average carbides import price stood at $2,876 per ton in 2024, with a decrease of -2.2% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, carbides import price increased by +39.9% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 34% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $2,940 per ton in 2023, and then shrank in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Norway ($24,844 per ton), while the price for the Netherlands ($666 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Norway (+13.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

United States's Exports of Carbides

In 2024, shipments abroad of carbides decreased by -12.2% to 18K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, exports continue to indicate a drastic downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. The exports peaked at 47K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carbides exports fell slightly to $77M in 2024. In general, exports showed a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 22%. The exports peaked at $163M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Canada (12K tons) was the main destination for carbides exports from the United States, accounting for a 64% share of total exports. Moreover, carbides exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (2.2K tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Norway (1.2K tons), with a 6.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Canada amounted to -6.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Mexico (-0.5% per year) and Norway (-19.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for carbides exported from the United States were Canada ($22M), Germany ($13M) and Japan ($10M), with a combined 59% share of total exports.

Japan, with a CAGR of +3.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced a decline.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average carbides export price amounted to $4,222 per ton, with an increase of 8.9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 31% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $5,128 per ton. From 2019 to 2024, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($20,548 per ton), while the average price for exports to Norway ($1,413 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Japan (+4.7%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.