Asia's Aluminum Market Set to Reach 82M Tons and $256.7B by 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: Asia - Aluminum and Alloys - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the aluminum and alloys market in Asia for 2024, with a forecast to 2035. It details that consumption in 2024 was 63M tons (valued at $169.1B), led overwhelmingly by China (77% share), though it saw a slight decline ending a four-year growth trend. Production was 60M tons ($155.6B), also led by China. The market is forecast to grow to 82M tons in volume and $256.7B in value by 2035. The report also covers international trade, noting imports of 12M tons and exports of 9.4M tons in 2024, with detailed breakdowns by country, product type (unwrought vs. alloys), and price trends.

Key Findings

• Asia's aluminum market is forecast to reach 82M tons in volume and $256.7B in value by 2035
• China dominates the market, accounting for 77% of consumption and 76% of production in 2024
• Market consumption and production saw a slight decline in 2024, ending a four-year rising trend
• Intra-Asian trade is significant, with 2024 imports at 12M tons and exports at 9.4M tons
• Unwrought, not alloyed aluminum is the major traded type, constituting 58% of imports and 42% of exports

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for aluminum and alloys in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 82M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $256.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Asia's Consumption of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, consumption of aluminum and alloys decreased by -0.9% to 63M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a four-year rising trend. The total consumption indicated a buoyant increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +71.4% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 10%. The volume of consumption peaked at 64M tons in 2023, and then declined modestly in the following year.

The revenue of the aluminum market in Asia totaled $169.1B in 2024, with an increase of 2.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, enjoyed a buoyant increase. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $178.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (49M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of aluminum consumption, comprising approx. 77% of total volume. Moreover, aluminum consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (2.8M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Japan (2.1M tons), with a 3.3% share.

In China, aluminum consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+5.0% per year) and Japan (-1.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($130B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($7.3B). It was followed by Japan.

In China, the aluminum market increased at an average annual rate of +7.6% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+6.7% per year) and Japan (+0.2% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of aluminum per capita consumption in 2024 were Malaysia (36 kg per person), China (34 kg per person) and Saudi Arabia (30 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +30.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

Asia's Production of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, production of aluminum and alloys decreased by -2.4% to 60M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a four-year rising trend. The total production indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production increased by +78.3% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 62M tons in 2023, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, aluminum production reduced to $155.6B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a buoyant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 62%. The level of production peaked at $179.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (46M tons) remains the largest aluminum producing country in Asia, accounting for 76% of total volume. Moreover, aluminum production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (4.4M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United Arab Emirates (3.1M tons), with a 5.2% share.

In China, aluminum production increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+8.9% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (+4.9% per year).

Imports

Asia's Imports of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, approx. 12M tons of aluminum and alloys were imported in Asia; remaining constant against the year before. Total imports indicated a moderate expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -0.4% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 20%. The volume of import peaked at 13M tons in 2021; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

In value terms, aluminum imports stood at $29.8B in 2024. Over the period under review, imports recorded a measured expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 49%. The level of import peaked at $33B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the five major importers of aluminum and alloys, namely China, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Turkey, represented more than two-thirds of total import. It was distantly followed by Thailand (633K tons), committing a 5.1% share of total imports. Vietnam (525K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +19.3%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($7.7B), Japan ($5.3B) and South Korea ($4B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together accounting for 57% of total imports.

China, with a CAGR of +20.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) represented the major type of aluminum and alloys in Asia, with the volume of imports reaching 7.5M tons, which was approx. 58% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by unwrought aluminium alloys (5.4M tons), comprising a 42% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key imported products, was attained by unwrought aluminium alloys (with a CAGR of +4.5%).

In value terms, aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($18.1B) and unwrought aluminium alloys ($12B) constituted the products with the highest levels of imports in 2024.

Aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed), with a CAGR of +5.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main imported products over the period under review.

Import Prices By Type

The import price in Asia stood at $2,384 per ton in 2024, picking up by 3.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a slight increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the import price increased by 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $2,822 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($2,422 per ton), while the price for unwrought aluminium alloys totaled $2,230 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by aluminium (+1.3%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in Asia amounted to $2,384 per ton, with an increase of 3.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a modest increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 37%. The level of import peaked at $2,822 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($2,679 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,447 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+1.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Asia's Exports of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, shipments abroad of aluminum and alloys decreased by -8% to 9.4M tons, falling for the second year in a row after seven years of growth. Total exports indicated a strong increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -22.1% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 25%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at 12M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, aluminum exports shrank to $23.5B in 2024. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 60%. The level of export peaked at $34.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from the United Arab Emirates (2.3M tons), India (2M tons) and Malaysia (1.9M tons), together finishing at 67% of total export. It was distantly followed by Bahrain (969K tons), making up a 10% share of total exports. China (363K tons), South Korea (272K tons), Kazakhstan (250K tons), Oman (248K tons), Thailand (209K tons) and Iran (173K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Bahrain (with a CAGR of +18.8%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest aluminum supplying countries in Asia were the United Arab Emirates ($6.2B), India ($4.8B) and Malaysia ($4.6B), together comprising 66% of total exports. Bahrain, China, South Korea, Oman, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

Bahrain, with a CAGR of +20.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2024, unwrought aluminium alloys (5.8M tons) was the largest type of aluminum and alloys, committing 58% of total exports. It was distantly followed by aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) (4.2M tons), constituting a 42% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for unwrought aluminium alloys (with a CAGR of +5.9%).

In value terms, the largest types of exported aluminum and alloys were unwrought aluminium alloys ($14.4B) and aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($10.4B).

Among the main exported products, unwrought aluminium alloys, with a CAGR of +6.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review.

Export Prices By Type

The export price in Asia stood at $2,492 per ton in 2024, flattening at the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the export price increased by 37%. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure at $2,860 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($2,507 per ton), while the average price for exports of unwrought aluminium alloys stood at $2,495 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by aluminium (+1.6%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in Asia amounted to $2,492 per ton, almost unchanged from the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the export price increased by 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum at $2,860 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the United Arab Emirates ($2,660 per ton) and Bahrain ($2,639 per ton), while Thailand ($2,132 per ton) and India ($2,361 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+2.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.