Japan's Aluminium Alloy Wire Market Forecast Shows Modest Growth With 2% Value CAGR

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan's aluminium alloy wire market in 2024, with a forecast to 2035. After a nine-year decline, consumption rose to 43K tons in 2024, valued at $190M. Production reached 45K tons ($198M). Imports, led by Vietnam, fell to 5.9K tons ($23M), while exports grew to 7.6K tons ($34M), primarily to Taiwan and South Korea. The market is projected to grow slightly to 46K tons by 2035, with a +0.5% volume CAGR and a +2.0% value CAGR, reaching $235M.

Key Findings

• Market forecast shows modest growth with a +0.5% volume CAGR and +2.0% value CAGR to 2035
• 2024 marked a rebound in domestic consumption and production after a nine-year declining trend
• Vietnam is the dominant import source, accounting for 52% of Japan's aluminium alloy wire imports by volume
• Japan is a net exporter, with key destinations being Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia
• Significant price disparity exists between import sources, with China's prices more than double those of Vietnam

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for aluminium alloy wire in Japan, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 46K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $235M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Japan's Consumption of Aluminium Alloy Wire

In 2024, consumption of aluminium alloy wire increased by 6% to 43K tons for the first time since 2014, thus ending a nine-year declining trend. In general, consumption, however, saw a slight reduction. Aluminium alloy wire consumption peaked at 50K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The value of the aluminium alloy wire market in Japan expanded remarkably to $190M in 2024, increasing by 6.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 7.7%. Aluminium alloy wire consumption peaked at $199M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Production

Japan's Production of Aluminium Alloy Wire

Aluminium alloy wire production in Japan stood at 45K tons in 2024, growing by 8.7% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a mild decrease. Aluminium alloy wire production peaked at 54K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, aluminium alloy wire production stood at $198M in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $211M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Imports

Japan's Imports of Aluminium Alloy Wire

In 2024, aluminium alloy wire imports into Japan shrank to 5.9K tons, waning by -8.4% against 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 83%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 7.1K tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, aluminium alloy wire imports contracted to $23M in 2024. In general, imports, however, recorded a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 109%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $29M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Vietnam (3K tons) constituted the largest aluminium alloy wire supplier to Japan, accounting for a 52% share of total imports. Moreover, aluminium alloy wire imports from Vietnam exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Thailand (1.1K tons), threefold. The Netherlands (501 tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with an 8.5% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Vietnam stood at +27.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Thailand (+65.6% per year) and the Netherlands (+4.7% per year).

In value terms, Vietnam ($9.5M) constituted the largest supplier of aluminium alloy wire to Japan, comprising 42% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Thailand ($3.6M), with a 16% share of total imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Vietnam amounted to +27.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Thailand (+53.8% per year) and the Netherlands (+6.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average aluminium alloy wire import price stood at $3,882 per ton in 2024, stabilizing at the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a slight shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average import price increased by 17%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $4,645 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($7,346 per ton), while the price for Vietnam ($3,116 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+3.3%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Japan's Exports of Aluminium Alloy Wire

In 2024, the amount of aluminium alloy wire exported from Japan expanded remarkably to 7.6K tons, surging by 8.9% compared with the year before. In general, total exports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -11.2% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 55% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at 9.8K tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, aluminium alloy wire exports stood at $34M in 2024. Overall, total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -12.1% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 45%. The exports peaked at $38M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Taiwan (Chinese) (2.2K tons), South Korea (1.6K tons) and Malaysia (1.1K tons) were the main destinations of aluminium alloy wire exports from Japan, together accounting for 64% of total exports. Germany, China, Vietnam, the United States and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +19.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Taiwan (Chinese) ($8.7M), South Korea ($6.7M) and Germany ($4.2M) were the largest markets for aluminium alloy wire exported from Japan worldwide, together accounting for 58% of total exports. Malaysia, China, Vietnam, the United States and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

The United States, with a CAGR of +18.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average aluminium alloy wire export price amounted to $4,417 per ton, almost unchanged from the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 12%. The export price peaked at $4,464 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($7,065 per ton), while the average price for exports to Malaysia ($3,532 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China (+1.3%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.