Oat Market

The global oat market is forecasted to see an increase in both consumption and production from 2022 to 2030. With a projected CAGR of +0.2% in consumption volume and +2.6% in market value, the market is expected to reach 27M tons in volume and $10.6B in value by the end of 2030. Key consuming countries include Russia, Canada, and the United States, while top producing nations are Canada, Russia, and Australia. Oat imports and exports have also seen fluctuations, with the United States and Canada being major players in both categories. Overall, the future looks promising for the global oat market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for oats worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 27M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Oats

Global oat consumption surged to 27M tons in 2022, picking up by 17% on the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global oat market size expanded remarkably to $8.6B in 2022, picking up by 7.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Russia (4.4M tons), Canada (4M tons) and the United States (2.1M tons), with a combined 40% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Canada (with a CAGR of +12.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($949M), Canada ($780M) and China ($765M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 29% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Canada, with a CAGR of +9.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of oat per capita consumption in 2022 were Finland (182 kg per person), Canada (103 kg per person) and Sweden (49 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Canada (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Oats

In 2022, the amount of oats produced worldwide skyrocketed to 26M tons, increasing by 17% on the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, production attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a notable increase of the harvested area and moderate growth in yield figures.

In value terms, oat production declined to $7.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $8.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Canada (5.2M tons), Russia (4.5M tons) and Australia (1.7M tons), with a combined 44% share of global production. Poland, Brazil, Finland, the UK, Spain, the United States, Germany, Sweden, Argentina and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of oats soared to 2.8 tons per ha, jumping by 18% on 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, the yield reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of oats dropped modestly to 9.5M ha, approximately equating the year before. Overall, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the harvested area increased by 5.5%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 9.9M ha. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global oat harvested area remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Oats

In 2022, overseas purchases of oats decreased by -4.1% to 3.6M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after four years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 3.9M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, oat imports soared to $1.3B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (1.3M tons) was the main importer of oats, generating 36% of total imports. Germany (478K tons) took a 13% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by China (11%), the Netherlands (9%) and Belgium (5%). The following importers - Mexico (161K tons) and Spain (130K tons) - each recorded an 8% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to oat imports into the United States stood at -2.0%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+20.8%), China (+16.8%), Belgium (+9.1%), Mexico (+8.6%), Germany (+5.4%) and Spain (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.8% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and Mexico increased by +7.7, +7.2, +3, +2.3 and +1.9 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($479M) constitutes the largest market for imported oats worldwide, comprising 38% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($141M), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by China, with a 10% share.

In the United States, oat imports expanded at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+4.9% per year) and China (+16.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average oat import price stood at $344 per ton in 2022, rising by 23% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the United States ($364 per ton) and Spain ($358 per ton), while Mexico ($283 per ton) and Germany ($296 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Oats

In 2022, the amount of oats exported worldwide reduced modestly to 3.5M tons, falling by -3.6% against 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 24%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 3.7M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, oat exports soared to $1.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +85.5% against 2017 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Canada represented the key exporting country with an export of around 1.3M tons, which recorded 36% of total exports. Australia (587K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 17% share, followed by Finland (6.4%), Sweden (6.4%) and the UK (5.5%). The following exporters - Russia (137K tons), Poland (137K tons), France (129K tons), the Czech Republic (78K tons), Chile (69K tons), Estonia (56K tons), Germany (54K tons) and Latvia (53K tons) - together made up 20% of total exports.

Exports from Canada decreased at an average annual rate of -2.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Russia (+33.3%), the UK (+32.6%), Latvia (+25.6%), France (+17.6%), Australia (+12.9%), Poland (+11.3%), Estonia (+7.2%), the Czech Republic (+5.9%) and Germany (+3.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Russia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +33.3% from 2012-2022. Sweden and Chile experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Finland (-4.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Australia (+11 p.p.), the UK (+5.1 p.p.), Russia (+3.6 p.p.), France (+2.8 p.p.) and Poland (+2.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Finland and Canada saw its share reduced by -6.3% and -20.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Canada ($465M) remains the largest oat supplier worldwide, comprising 39% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Australia ($179M), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by the UK, with a 6.8% share.

In Canada, oat exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Australia (+13.5% per year) and the UK (+27.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average oat export price amounted to $341 per ton, rising by 24% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($424 per ton), while Russia ($254 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform