Worldwide Soybean Oilcake Market to Expand with +1.5% CAGR, Reaching $170.2B by 2030

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The soybean oilcake market is set to experience continued growth driven by rising demand worldwide. Forecasts predict a 1.5% increase in market volume and a 4.0% increase in market value from 2023 to 2030, reaching 275 million tons and $170.2 billion respectively by the end of the period.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for soybean oilcake worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 275M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $170.2B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Soybean Oilcake

In 2023, consumption of soybean oilcake decreased by -1% to 248M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 5.3%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 256M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global soybean oilcake market value fell to $129.2B in 2023, standing approx. at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $131.5B. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of soybean oilcake consumption was China (39M tons), comprising approx. 16% of total volume. Moreover, soybean oilcake consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (19M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (14M tons), with a 5.7% share.

In China, soybean oilcake consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+2.9% per year) and India (+0.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($19.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($8.1B). It was followed by India.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +1.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+1.7% per year) and India (+1.4% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of soybean oilcake per capita consumption in 2023 were Argentina (119 kg per person), Germany (75 kg per person) and Japan (66 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Argentina (with a CAGR of +8.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Soybean Oilcake

After three years of growth, production of soybean oilcake decreased by -0.8% to 249M tons in 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 6%. Global production peaked at 251M tons in 2022, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, soybean oilcake production rose modestly to $125.9B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 15%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $130.2B. From 2022 to 2023, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (40M tons), the United States (30M tons) and Brazil (23M tons), with a combined 37% share of global production. Argentina, India, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Bangladesh, Germany, Nigeria and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +9.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Soybean Oilcake

In 2023, the amount of soybean oilcake imported worldwide fell modestly to 67M tons, waning by -4.1% compared with 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a slight increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 7%. Global imports peaked at 70M tons in 2022, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

In value terms, soybean oilcake imports reduced to $36B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $37.8B in 2022, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Indonesia (5.7M tons) and Vietnam (5M tons) were the largest importers of soybean oilcakeacross the globe, together accounting for near 16% of total imports. It was followed by Thailand (3.2M tons), generating a 4.7% share of total imports. Poland (2.9M tons), the Philippines (2.9M tons), France (2.6M tons), the Netherlands (2.3M tons), Germany (2.1M tons), the UK (1.9M tons), Spain (1.9M tons), South Korea (1.7M tons), Japan (1.7M tons) and Colombia (1.6M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +6.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest soybean oilcake importing markets worldwide were Indonesia ($2.6B), Vietnam ($2.3B) and Thailand ($1.8B), with a combined 19% share of global imports. The Philippines, Poland, France, the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, Spain, Japan, South Korea and Colombia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Philippines, with a CAGR of +8.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average soybean oilcake import price amounted to $539 per ton, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 22%. Global import price peaked at $542 per ton in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Japan ($603 per ton) and the Philippines ($580 per ton), while Vietnam ($459 per ton) and Indonesia ($463 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+1.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Soybean Oilcake

In 2023, approx. 67M tons of soybean oilcake were exported worldwide; with a decrease of -3.2% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a modest increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 70M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, soybean oilcake exports reduced modestly to $35.1B in 2023. In general, total exports indicated a modest expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +46.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $35.6B, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Brazil (22M tons), distantly followed by Argentina (15M tons) and the United States (11M tons) were the largest exporters of soybean oilcake, together comprising 72% of total exports. The Netherlands (2.5M tons), India (2.4M tons), Bolivia (2.1M tons), Germany (1.9M tons) and Paraguay (1.9M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest soybean oilcake supplying countries worldwide were Brazil ($11.5B), Argentina ($7.4B) and the United States ($5.7B), with a combined 70% share of global exports.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +5.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average soybean oilcake export price amounted to $521 per ton, with an increase of 1.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($592 per ton) and Germany ($561 per ton), while Bolivia ($439 per ton) and Paraguay ($467 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+0.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform