Dairy Spread Market

The global dairy spreads market is expected to experience steady growth over the next eight years, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.8% in volume and +3.6% in market value by 2030. Consumption has been on the rise, reaching 2.4M tons in 2022. China, the United States, and India were the top consuming countries, while China led in market value. Production has also been increasing, with China, the United States, and India as the top producers. Import and export data show fluctuations in recent years, with South Korea, Germany, and Spain as significant importers, and Belgium, New Zealand, and Australia leading in exports. Average prices have been increasing steadily, with notable differences among countries. Greece showed the highest growth rate in export value. Overall, the dairy spreads market is poised for gradual growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for dairy spreads worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $12.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dairy Spreads

In 2022, consumption of dairy spreads increased by less than 0.1% to 2.4M tons, rising for the sixth year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

The global dairy spread market revenue expanded modestly to $9.4B in 2022, growing by 3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (362K tons), the United States (246K tons) and India (139K tons), together comprising 31% of global consumption. Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Russia, Brazil, the UK, Bangladesh, Turkey and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +7.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($1.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($642M). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +4.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+7.7% per year) and the United States (+6.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of dairy spread per capita consumption in 2022 were the UK (840 kg per 1000 persons), the United States (735 kg per 1000 persons) and Japan (645 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Indonesia (with a CAGR of +6.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Dairy Spreads

In 2022, the amount of dairy spreads produced worldwide was estimated at 2.4M tons, stabilizing at 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, dairy spread production rose modestly to $8.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (362K tons), the United States (245K tons) and India (139K tons), together comprising 31% of global production. Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Russia, Brazil, the UK, Bangladesh, Turkey and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +10.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Dairy Spreads

Global dairy spread imports shrank markedly to 41K tons in 2022, reducing by -36.4% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, imports recorded a deep downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 108K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, dairy spread imports declined markedly to $213M in 2022. In general, imports showed a abrupt setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 24%. Global imports peaked at $394M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, South Korea (6.5K tons), distantly followed by Spain (2.9K tons), Germany (2.7K tons), Portugal (2.1K tons), Slovakia (1.9K tons), Bulgaria (1.9K tons) and the Czech Republic (1.8K tons) represented the major importers of dairy spreads, together achieving 49% of total imports. Romania (1.6K tons), the UK (1.5K tons), France (1.4K tons), the United States (1.3K tons), Kazakhstan (1.2K tons) and the Netherlands (1.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into South Korea increased at an average annual rate of +7.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Spain (+26.0%), Bulgaria (+22.7%), the United States (+8.7%), Slovakia (+7.1%), the Czech Republic (+1.7%) and Romania (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +26.0% from 2012-2022. The Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-2.2%), Portugal (-4.8%), Kazakhstan (-8.8%), France (-10.3%) and the UK (-25.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. South Korea (+13 p.p.), Spain (+6.9 p.p.), Bulgaria (+4.4 p.p.), Slovakia (+3.8 p.p.), Germany (+3.5 p.p.), the Czech Republic (+3.1 p.p.), the United States (+2.7 p.p.), Romania (+2.6 p.p.), Portugal (+2 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the UK saw its share reduced by -21% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Korea ($36M) constitutes the largest market for imported dairy spreads worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($17M), with an 8% share of global imports. It was followed by Spain, with a 7.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in South Korea amounted to +12.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+3.2% per year) and Spain (+30.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average dairy spread import price amounted to $5,235 per ton, growing by 12% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.7%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($7,814 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($3,377 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovakia (+8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dairy Spreads

In 2022, overseas shipments of dairy spreads decreased by -24.6% to 35K tons, falling for the fourth consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, exports continue to indicate a abrupt decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 5.5%. The global exports peaked at 86K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dairy spread exports fell to $197M in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a noticeable descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $308M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Belgium (5.7K tons) and New Zealand (5K tons) represented roughly 30% of total exports in 2022. Australia (3.2K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 9.1% share, followed by Saudi Arabia (8.9%), France (7.3%), Germany (7.2%), Ireland (5.7%) and Greece (5%). The following exporters - Ukraine (1,188 tons), the Netherlands (1,117 tons), Serbia (872 tons) and the UK (683 tons) - together made up 11% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +68.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Belgium ($35M), New Zealand ($28M) and Germany ($23M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 44% of global exports. Australia, Ireland, France, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Greece, Ukraine, the UK and Serbia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 43%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Greece, with a CAGR of +69.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average dairy spread export price stood at $5,570 per ton in 2022, growing by 14% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, dairy spread export price increased by +21.2% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($9,010 per ton), while Greece ($3,470 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+11.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform