Africa: Market for Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates 2023

Market Size for Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates in Africa

In 2021, after nine years of growth, there was significant decline in the African market for processed petroleum oils and distillates, when its value decreased by -19.4% to $X. Over the period under review, consumption, however, posted significant growth. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2020, and then dropped rapidly in the following year.

Production of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates in Africa

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates production declined to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a deep contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 8.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates

Exports in Africa

Processed petroleum oils and distillates exports soared to X tons in 2021, growing by 16% against 2020 figures. Over the period under review, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 23%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates exports soared to $X in 2021. In general, exports, however, recorded a abrupt slump. The level of export peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2021, Algeria (X tons) was the key exporter of processed petroleum oils and distillates, mixing up 48% of total exports. Egypt (X tons) held a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by South Africa (13%). The following exporters - Senegal (X tons), Libya (X tons), Cote d'Ivoire (X tons), Kenya (X tons) and Nigeria (X tons) - together made up 14% of total exports.

Algeria experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of processed petroleum oils and distillates. At the same time, Kenya (+46.0%), Senegal (+26.9%), Egypt (+13.7%) and South Africa (+10.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +46.0% from 2012-2021. By contrast, Cote d'Ivoire (-4.2%), Libya (-11.5%) and Nigeria (-15.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Egypt (+12 p.p.), South Africa (+7.3 p.p.), Senegal (+3.6 p.p.) and Kenya (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Nigeria and Libya saw its share reduced by -6.3% and -8.2% from 2012 to 2021, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Algeria ($X), Egypt ($X) and South Africa ($X) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2021, with a combined 80% share of total exports. Senegal, Libya, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya and Nigeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 12%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Senegal, with a CAGR of +17.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, growing by 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the export price increased by 23%. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably country of origin: the country with the highest price was Egypt ($X per ton), while Nigeria ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Egypt (-2.5%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates

Imports in Africa

In 2021, purchases abroad of processed petroleum oils and distillates decreased by -13.9% to X tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates imports totaled $X in 2021. Overall, imports recorded a abrupt shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of processed petroleum oils and distillates imports in 2021 were Morocco (X tons), Nigeria (X tons), Egypt (X tons), Togo (X tons), Mozambique (X tons), Libya (X tons), Tunisia (X tons), Liberia (X tons), Senegal (X tons), Tanzania (X tons), Kenya (X tons) and Swaziland (X tons), together recording 79% of total import. Algeria (X tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Swaziland (with a CAGR of +147.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Morocco ($X), Nigeria ($X) and Egypt ($X) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2021, with a combined 32% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Mozambique, Libya, Togo, Tunisia, Tanzania, Senegal, Liberia, Algeria, Kenya and Swaziland, which together accounted for a further 47%.

Mozambique, with a CAGR of +11.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the import price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 17% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a deep reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 an increase of 22%. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably country of destination: the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per ton), while Swaziland ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (-3.6%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

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