Africa: Ethylene Market 2024

Ethylene Market Size in Africa

The African ethylene market declined to $X in 2021, which is down by -2.6% against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the market value increased by 9.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2021, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Ethylene Production in Africa

In value terms, ethylene production fell modestly to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 12%. The level of production peaked at $X in 2020, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Ethylene Exports

Exports in Africa

For the seventh consecutive year, Africa recorded growth in shipments abroad of ethylene, which increased by 15% to X tons in 2021. In general, exports continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 18%. The volume of export peaked in 2021 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, ethylene exports surged to $X in 2021. Overall, exports recorded a buoyant expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 20%. The level of export peaked in 2021 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Libya dominates exports structure, reaching X tons, which was approx. 98% of total exports in 2021. Nigeria (X tons) held a little share of total exports.

Libya was also the fastest-growing in terms of the ethylene exports, with a CAGR of +15.5% from 2012 to 2021. Nigeria (-24.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Libya (+44 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Nigeria saw its share reduced by -43.5% from 2012 to 2021, respectively.

In value terms, Libya ($X) remains the largest ethylene supplier in Africa, comprising 97% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Nigeria ($X), with a 2.8% share of total exports.

In Libya, ethylene exports increased at an average annual rate of +19.5% over the period from 2012-2021.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, rising by 3.4% against the previous year. Export price indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2021: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, ethylene export price increased by +66.3% against 2013 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the peak figure in 2021 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($X per ton), while Libya stood at $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+13.8%).

Ethylene Imports

Imports in Africa

In 2021, imports of ethylene in Africa skyrocketed to X tons, rising by 61% against 2020 figures. In general, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at X tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ethylene imports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a noticeable downturn. The level of import peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Morocco represented the main importer of ethylene in Africa, with the volume of imports recording X tons, which was approx. 64% of total imports in 2021. Algeria (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Libya (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 31% share of total imports. Sudan (X tons) took a minor share of total imports.

Imports into Morocco increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Sudan (+34.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Sudan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Africa, with a CAGR of +34.6% from 2012-2021. By contrast, Algeria (-1.1%) and Libya (-14.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Morocco (+29 p.p.) and Sudan (+3.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Algeria and Libya saw its share reduced by -2.9% and -29.4% from 2012 to 2021, respectively.

In value terms, Morocco ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported ethylene in Africa, comprising 72% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Algeria ($X), with a 20% share of total imports. It was followed by Libya, with a 5.5% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Morocco totaled +4.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Algeria (-4.6% per year) and Libya (-19.7% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Africa stood at $X per ton in 2021, surging by 70% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable curtailment. Over the period under review, import prices reached the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($X per ton), while Sudan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Morocco (-2.0%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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