Steel

China dominates imports of manganese ore, and shipments to the country are actively rebounding after 2020’s drop in mining and trade worldwide. The country is strengthening its control over the high-purity manganese sector used in electric car batteries. Chinese manganese producers have merged into a conglomerate enabling the country to influence prices and gain a competitive advantage.

New waves of the epidemic and the overwhelming demand for oxygen in the healthcare sector have led to a scarcity of the product worldwide. Countries with severe shortages are diverting oxygen from the sectors of metallurgy and chemistry to healthcare, which reduces the productivity of the manufacturing industries. As the pandemic slows, the demand for medical oxygen will return to pre-crisis levels. In the post-pandemic period, the growing demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries will continue to shape market expansion. Decarbonization may emerge as a new market driver, with oxygen being used to produce synthesis gas from carbon dioxide. 

China steel prices continue to level off from mid-May heights off the back of sluggish seasonal demand, declines in domestic manufacturer steel consumption and government pledges to curb “unreasonable” demand, despite tighter climate controls on steel production. Overall, Asia-Pacific steel prices are still set to stay elevated in the medium-term with support from robust infrastructure spending, though concerns loom oversupply capacity expansions in South-East Asia and tightening of fiscal spending in China. 

Nickel prices skyrocketed on the expectations of a shortage on the global market provoked by the increase in demand that outpaces the supply growth. The rebound in the steel industry and rising electric vehicle manufacturing drive nickel consumption. Pandemic-related lockdowns in the first half of 2020 and the related uncertainty led to a decrease in the global nickel mine output by -4% y-o-y. Despite this, refined nickel production increased by +2% y-o-y, boosted by the recovering demand from mid-2020 and the use of secondary smelting. Indonesia, the largest nickel ore producer worldwide, banned exports of the ore and thus achieved a record output of refined nickel. 

The beginning of 2021 saw a sharp increase in the steel demand, while metallurgical plants were still recovering from the operational downtime incurred during the lockdown. This market disbalance leads to an increase in steel prices. The recovery of the automotive sector and other downstream industries in 2020, at a faster pace than expected, generates the conditions for robust steel demand in the medium term. 

In 2020, the decline in the global coal market gathered momentum, against the Covid-19 pandemic. The low cost of natural gas, combined with the development of alternative energy sources and stricter environmental regulations, are pushing the coal energy sector into stagnation. In the medium term, only the metallurgical industry is set to see a stable demand for coal. 

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