U.S. Avocado Market to Continue Robust Growth

Driven by growth of the Latin American population in the U.S., promotion of healthy eating, as well as increasing use of avocados in menus of "healthy fast food" restaurants in large cities, the avocado market performance is set to continue its upwards consumption trend in the medium term.

The U.S. avocado market showed an upward trend of consumption, rising steadily from 2011 to 2016. According to market research conducted by IndexBox, in wholesale prices, the market size doubled over the last five years and finally reached $2.2B in 2016. This figure reflects total revenue of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). However, being calculated at the average retail prices, the market size is estimated near $5.4B, which makes huge contrast against the revenues of producers and importers.

In physical terms, an 8% decrease of consumption volume was observed in 2016 to 985K tonnes, but previously the market volume underwent a robust growth from 2011-2015. A sensitive increase in import prices in 2016 could be the reason for this drop in consumption; it also enabled the market to grow in value terms against the decline in consumption volume in 2016.

Over the analyzed period, avocados became increasingly popular in the U.S.: per capita avocado consumption in U.S. expanded robustly from 3.22 kg/year in 2007 to 6.85 kg/year in 2016. In value terms, per capita avocado consumption ranged in the interval from $1.34 per year in 2008 to $3.31 per year in 2016. Consumption of avocados in the United States will be affected mostly by sustainable population growth, especially including the growth of the Latin American population with avocado being a staple in their cuisine; the use of avocados as an ingredient in the cosmetic industry is also increasing. Promotion of healthy eating and vegan or vegetarian diet, along with growth in the number of "healthy fast food" restaurants in large cities, as well as the growing popularity of avocado sandwiches will constitute some other factors contributing to the avocado market growth; moreover, largest fast-food chains are increasingly adding dishes with avocado to their menus. Thus, based on these factors, market performance is forecast to continue its upwards consumption trend, expanding with an anticipated average annual growth rate of +3.2% for the nine-year period from 2016 to 2025, which is projected to lead the market volume to 1.3M tonnes by the end of 2025.

The U.S. avocado production recorded wild fluctuations over the period under review. In 2016, the value of shipments in the industry decreased by 27% to $340M. Production volume of avocados also dropped in 2016, amounting to 178K tonnes. Fluctuations in the volume of avocado production are primarily due to lean seasons in the two largest avocado producing states - California and Florida. At the same time, the harvested area of avocados gradually decreased within the period under review: the results of 2016 indicated a drop by 22% against the level of 2007.

Therefore, the national production of avocados in the U.S. is unable to meet domestic consumption due to its insufficient volumes, relative high costs and significant fluctuations due to lean seasons. As a result, the growing consumption of avocados in the U.S. has stimulated an increase in imports - the share of imports in total U.S. avocados consumption increased from 66% in 2007 to 87% in 2016.

In 2016, the value of total U.S. avocado imports was $1,993M. There was an annual average increase of +14.0% for the period from 2007 to 2016; it accelerated sharply over the last four years. In physical terms, U.S. avocado imports reached 860K tonnes in 2016, levelling off against the previous year and thereby finishing a period of steady growth observed over the previous four years.

Mexico (785K tonnes) was the main supplier of avocado into the U.S., with a share of 91% of total U.S. imports in 2016. Imports from Mexico increased at an average annual rate of +15.2% from 2007 to 2016. Therefore, Mexico significantly strengthened its position in the U.S. imports by +28 percentage points from 2007 to 2016. Peru held the second position in the ranking with 4% share of total imports, followed by Chile (3%) and the Dominican Republic (2%). Mexico significantly strengthened its position in terms of the U.S. imports from 63% in 2007 to 91% in 2016, while Chile, which previously boasted a high volume of imports, saw its share reduced by –29 percentage points over the same period.

On the other hand, the U.S. exported 53K tonnes of avocado in 2016, with Canada constituting the main export destination. The export volumes fluctuated somewhat wildly from 2007-2016, with acceleration over the last year. As the market continues to be dominated by imports, these small exports may include not only domestically produced avocados, but re-exports as well.

Retail prices for avocado fluctuated mildly over the analyzed period. It dropped from the highest level achieved in 2011 of $1.28 per unit to $1.11 per unit in 2016. Regionwise, the highest price in 2016 was recorded in Hawaii (1.81 $ per unit) and the lowest in the U.S. South Central (0.95 $ per unit).

Do you want to know more about U.S. avocado market? Get the latest trends and insight from our report. It includes a wide range of statistics on

• avocado market share
• avocado prices
• avocado industry
• avocado sales
• avocado market forecast
• avocado price forecast
• key avocado producers

Source: United States Of America: Avocados – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast