Sep 8, 2016

U.S. Petroleum Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025

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Petroleum Market - The U.S. Petroleum Consumption to Grow Robustly, Set Against Price Turbulence and Increased Stocks

Photo: © alones / Bigstockphoto

Prices on the USA oil products market have been falling in recent years, against tangible fluctuations in the price margin (the difference between the selling price of petroleum products and the crude oil price). The mid-2015 transient margin's increase did not result in the USA's marked output of petroleum products, which is already growing at a faster rate than domestic consumption. Export supply is insufficient to achieve a surplus output volume, which has generated a record increase in USA petroleum product reserves over the past eight years.

As a result of the falling market prices, the value of shipments in the oil refining industry in 2015 experienced a significant tumble. As projected, this drop in prices will support the positive trend in terms of primary oil products' consumption. It will take some time, however, to achieve a new market equilibrium between increased oil products output and domestic consumption. Those petroleum companies that can adapt to the price pressure, will continue to operate smoothly, due to the sustained demand for petroleum products.

Over the past few years, USA oil products prices have been falling, in the wake of oil price indications. There are two reasons for this: firstly, there is the American oil refining industry's use of imported crude oil and secondly, there is currently stiff competition on the petroleum market; therefore the price dynamic for USA oil products, in general, coincides with the changes in global oil prices.

However, the decline in prices for oil products is not only determined by the falling oil prices, but the prevailing market conditions. It should be noted, that in terms of the oil products pricing structure, the cost of crude oil accounts for only half, and the other half is derived from taxation, oil-processing costs, marketing and logistics costs, as well as the producers' surplus. In this context, the change in the market conditions of the USA oil products market results in margin fluctuations for the oil producers.

At the beginning of 2015, crude oil and gasoline retail prices experienced a sharp fall, but the subsequent recovery in gasoline prices has been more pronounced. As a result, during the period July-August 2015, the price margin (the difference between the gasoline retail price and the crude oil price) peaked in terms of the past few years. At the end of 2015 through to the beginning of 2016, gasoline prices plummeted, as a result of the continued drop in oil prices. The rapid decline in oil prices led to a slump in the producers' margins, to levels which roughly mirror the 2014 figures. A short spike by the oil companies to achieve an increased margin was all too brief, and the oil products prices trend once again tallied with the oil price.

The transient margin increase seen in 2015 did not result in the USA's marked output of petroleum products, which were already indicating long-term steady growth. The discrepancy between oil products output and supply to the domestic market has increased steadily over the past three years, set against the very moderate rise in oil products consumption. Excess oil products are sent for export or stored as reserves. Despite the tangible increase seen in exports in recent years, its volume remains insufficient to achieve a surplus output. Amongst other factors, the slump in terms of the competitiveness of American petroleum products on the markets abroad, as a result of the strong dollar, has restricted the export of oil products. This has resulted in an increase in stocks of oil products, which recorded a record growth of X% in 2015.

As a result, oil products prices have been subject to additional pressure from surplus output and the increase in reserves, which in turn has led to a rapid decline and contraction of the producers' margins. It is expected that the expanding output of petroleum products in the USA will exert pressure on prices until the supply and demand balance attains a new market equilibrium.

The drop in oil products prices, against stable natural volumes of consumption, has led to a reduction in shipments, in value terms. Following the fall in market prices, the value of shipments in the oil refining industry declined by X% in 2015. The negative impact, however, on the oil refining industry was not so much the relative drop in the crude oil and oil products prices, as a reduction in the margin, due to the rapid fall in the sales price. This margins decrease is forcing oil companies to cut back on production outlay and investment designed to enhance output capacity, and to focus purely on maintaining current output levels.

Despite the fluctuations in supply volume in value terms, supplies of primary oil products in the USA are set to retain a steady, positive trend. Industry's gradual recovery, coupled with increased employment and enhanced access to credit will be the foundations for this.

Most oil products consumption originates from private and commercial vehicle use. According to the recent market research by IndexBox, in terms of the oil products supplies structure in the USA, gasoline is the leader (gasoline accounted for X% of supplies in 2015), distillate fuel oil ranks next (X%; diesel oil is also included in this category), and jet fuel occupies third place with X%. Other types of fuel account for approx. X% of consumption. The remaining share is composed of other petroleum products. It should be noted that, despite several fluctuations, the structure of the oil products output has remained relatively stable over the past X years.

According to projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, petrol consumption is set to grow slowly in the medium term. Increased vehicle use, combined with rising incomes, greater access to car loans and low petrol prices, are listed as being the key factors for this. Economic recovery and rising incomes will heighten the demand for travel (inlcuding that made as business development trips), thereby setting the pre-conditions for the growth in aviation fuel consumption. Increasing transport use will also result in a growth in diesel fuel consumption. The expansion of those sectors (e.g. the chemical industry) that use petroleum products for further processing, is yet another positive driver for the oil products market.

However, a certain period of time is required to achieve a new market equilibrium between oil products output, which is growing tangibly and siginificantly, and domestic consumption, which is developing at a much slower pace. At the same time, surplus output and increased reserves will exert pressure on prices. Should the oil market be subject to fresh shocks, those companies that are able to adapt to the new pricing reality will continue to show stable growth.

Do you want to know more about the U.S. petroleum market? Get the latest trends and insight from our report. It includes a wide range of statistics on

  • petroleum market share
  • petroleum prices
  • petroleum industry
  • petroleum sales
  • petroleum market forecast
  • petroleum price forecast
  • key petroleum producers

Source: U.S. Petroleum Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2020

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Product coverage:

Gasoline, including finished base stocks and blending agents; Jet fuel, all types; Kerosene, excluding jet fuelLight fuel oils; Heavy fuel oils, including grades No. 5, 6, heavy diesel-type, heavy gas-enrichment oils, etc.; Petroleum lubricating oils and greases, made in a refinery; Unfinished oils and lubricating oil base stock; Asphalt; Liquefied refinery gases (aliphatics), made in a refinery; Other finished petroleum products, including waxes, made in a refinery; Petroleum refineries, nsk, total


The report provides on an in-depth analysis of the U.S. petroleum market. It presents the latest data of the market size and volume, domestic production, exports and imports, price dynamics and turnover in the industry. In addition, the report contains insightful information about the industry, including industry life cycle, business locations, productivity, employment and many other crucial aspects. The Company Profiles section contains current data on the largest players in the industry.


Countries coverage: the U.S.


Companies mentioned:

Chevron Corporation,

Exxon Mobil Corporation,

Valero Energy Corporation,

Koch Industries,

Hollyfrontier Corporation,

Calumet Specialty Products Partners,

United Refining Company,

Western Refining,

Alon USA Energy,

Pbf Energy Company,

Pbf Energy,

Cvr Energy,

Murphy Oil Usa,

Chc McPherson Refinery,

BP America,

Delek US Holdings,

Marathon Petroleum Corporation,

Placid Refining Company,

Cvr Refining,

Northern Tier Energy,

Paulsboro Refining Company,

United Refining,

Valero Refining-New Orleans,

Shell Petroleum,

Exxonmobil Oil Corporation,

Placid Holding Company,

The Sinclair Companies,

United Acquisition Corp.,

Alon Refining Krotz Springs,

Pbf Holding Company,

Phillips 66 Company,

Alon USA Partners,

BP Corporation North America


Data coverage:

• Petroleum market size;

• Petroleum production, value of shipments;

• Key market players and their profiles;

• Exports, imports and trade balance;

• Import and export prices;

• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term;

• Key industry statistics;

• Life cycle of the petroleum industry;

• Number of establishments and their locations;

• Employment data;

• Petroleum industry productivity.


Reasons to buy this report:

• Take advantage of the latest data;

• Find deeper insights into current market developments;

• Discover vital success factors affecting the market.


This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.


In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues


1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities

2. How to load your idle production capacity

3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets

4. How to increase your profit margins

5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable

6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs

7. How to outsource production to other countries

8. How to prepare your business for global expansion


While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

2.1
KEY FINDINGS
2.2
MARKET TRENDS
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
MARKET STRUCTURE
3.3
TRADE BALANCE
3.4
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
3.5
MARKET FORECAST TO 2025
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.4
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
8. IMPORTS

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2013–2018
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. EXPORTS

The Largest Destinations for Exports

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2013–2018
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2018
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2013–2018
Table 3:
Market Value, 2013–2018
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption In 2013-2018
Table 5:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Table 6:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Table 7:
Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2013–2018
Table 8:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Table 9:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Table 10:
Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2013–2018
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2013–2018
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2013–2018
Figure 3:
Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2013-2018
Figure 4:
Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Value Terms, 2013-2018
Figure 5:
Trade Balance, In Physical Terms, 2013-2018
Figure 6:
Trade Balance, In Value Terms, 2013-2018
Figure 7:
Per Capita Consumption, 2013-2018
Figure 8:
Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 9:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 10:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 11:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 12:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 13:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 14:
Exports And Growth
Figure 15:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 16:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 17:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 18:
Imports And Growth
Figure 19:
Import Prices
Figure 20:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2013–2018
Figure 21:
Production, In Value Terms, 2013–2018
Figure 22:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2013–2018
Figure 23:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2013–2018
Figure 24:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2018
Figure 25:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Figure 26:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Figure 27:
Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2013–2018
Figure 28:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2013–2018
Figure 29:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2013–2018
Figure 30:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2018
Figure 31:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Figure 32:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2013–2018
Figure 33:
Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2013–2018
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