Potassium Chloride Prices to Soar 50% in 2022 After Sanctions on Belarus

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Potassium Chloride (MOP) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

A prolonged price rally is expected in the potassium chloride (MOP) market owing to anticipated supply chain disruptions after the U.S., the UK, Canada and EU countries have imposed sanctions on a major potassium chloride supplier, Belarus Potash Company (BPC). Limited exports from Canada will be another factor instigating price growth. MOP prices have already started to rise in Brazil due to supply delays. The average annual MOP price is projected to surge by 55% y-o-y to $325 per tonne in 2022. 

According to a recent World Bank’s forecast, the average annual MOP price is projected to soar by 50% y-o-y to near $325 per tonne next year. Sanctions on the Belarus Potash Company (BPC) imposed by the U.S., the UK, Canada, and the EU could lead to global supply chain disruptions. Combined with limited production in Canada, the world’s largest potassium chloride exporter, this may cause local shortages in consuming countries and push prices up. World Bank’s data indicate, that the average MOP price was $221 per tonne in November 2021. 

Supply delays hit Brazil hardest, lifting spot potassium chloride prices to $825 per tonne in the first week of November 2021. Shipments from Canada, Russia and Belarus constitute 84% of Brazilian MOP import volume. 

Under sanction pressure, Belarus could redirect its export flows to Asian and South American countries. This year, it has significantly ramped up MOP supplies to China, Thailand, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Argentina. Belarus ranks third in the leading potassium chloride exporter ranking, following Canada and Russia. 

Top Leading MOP Exporters Worldwide

Canada represented the major exporting country with an export of around 21M tonnes, which finished at 42% of total exports. Russia (9.2M tonnes) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by Belarus (7.7M tonnes), Germany (3.4M tonnes) and Israel (3.3M tonnes). All these countries together occupied approx. 47% share of total exports. Jordan (2M tonnes) and the U.S. (1.2M tonnes) took a minor share of total exports.

In value terms, Canada ($4.5B) remains the largest potassium chloride supplier worldwide, comprising 37% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Belarus ($1.9B), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Russia, with a 14% share.

Top Leading MOP Importers Worldwide

The U.S. (12M tonnes), Brazil (11M tonnes) and China (8.8M tonnes) represented roughly 58% of total imports of potassium chloride (MOP) in 2020. India (5.1M tonnes) occupied a 9.3% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Indonesia (5.2%). The following importers - Malaysia (1.3M tonnes), Belgium (1.1M tonnes), Viet Nam (1.1M tonnes) and Poland (1M tonnes) - each finished at an 8.1% share of total imports. 

In value terms, Brazil ($2.8B), the U.S. ($2.5B) and China ($2.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2020, together accounting for 55% of global imports. India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Belgium, Viet Nam and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%. 

Source: IndexBox Platform