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Africa - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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Article Publishing Date: Apr 10, 2020

Grain Consumption in Africa Continues Rising

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IndexBox has just published a new report: 'Africa - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The revenue of the grain market in Africa amounted to $109B in 2018, picking up by 9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). 

The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2014 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of grain consumption in 2018 were Egypt (44M tonnes), Nigeria (31M tonnes) and Ethiopia (26M tonnes), together comprising 37% of total consumption. These countries were followed by Algeria, Morocco, South Africa, Tanzania, Mali, Sudan, Kenya, Niger and Tunisia, which together accounted for a further 38%.

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for grain in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 366M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in Africa

The grain production totaled 201M tonnes in 2018, increasing by 1.6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2014 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. The volume of grain production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of grain output was largely conditioned by a slight increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of grain production in 2018 were Nigeria (26M tonnes), Ethiopia (25M tonnes) and Egypt (22M tonnes), together accounting for 37% of total production. South Africa, Morocco, Tanzania, Mali, Sudan, Niger, Algeria, Burkina Faso and Kenya lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

Harvested Area and Yield in Africa

In 2018, the grain harvested area in Africa amounted to 125M ha, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. The average yield of grain in Africa stood at 1.6 tonne per ha, flattening at the previous year.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the grain exports in Africa stood at 2.3M tonnes, growing by 14% against the previous year. In value terms, grain exports stood at $720M (IndexBox estimates).

Exports by Country

South Africa represented the largest exporter of grain exported in Africa, with the volume of exports accounting for 1.2M tonnes, which was near 52% of total exports in 2018. Uganda (471K tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Tanzania (212K tonnes) and Zambia (144K tonnes). All these countries together occupied near 36% share of total exports. Kenya (70K tonnes), Sudan (46K tonnes) and Burkina Faso (44K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from South Africa decreased at an average annual rate of -17.0% from 2014 to 2018. At the same time, Kenya (+64.3%), Uganda (+37.8%), Tanzania (+32.4%), Zambia (+10.8%) and Sudan (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +64.3% from 2014-2018. By contrast, Burkina Faso (-10.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Uganda (+15 p.p.), Tanzania (+6.2 p.p.), Kenya (+2.6 p.p.) and Zambia (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while South Africa saw its share reduced by -57.6% from 2014 to 2018, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($407M) remains the largest grain supplier in Africa, comprising 56% of total grain exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Uganda ($94M), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a 10% share.

In South Africa, grain exports plunged by an average annual rate of -13.9% over the period from 2014-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Uganda (+27.8% per year) and Tanzania (+32.0% per year).

Imports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 73M tonnes of grain were imported in Africa; increasing by 4.5% against the previous year. In value terms, grain imports amounted to $15B (IndexBox estimates).

Imports by Country

In 2018, Egypt (22M tonnes), distantly followed by Algeria (14M tonnes), Morocco (6.8M tonnes), Nigeria (5M tonnes) and Tunisia (3.5M tonnes) were the key importers of grain, together achieving 70% of total imports. The following importers - Libya (3M tonnes), Sudan (2.9M tonnes), Kenya (2.4M tonnes), South Africa (2.2M tonnes) and Zimbabwe (1.2M tonnes) - together made up 16% of total imports.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Zimbabwe, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grain importing markets in Africa were Egypt ($4.1B), Algeria ($2.6B) and Morocco ($1.4B), with a combined 54% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Nigeria, Tunisia, Sudan, Libya, Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe, which together accounted for a further 30%.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Product coverage:
• FCL 108 - Cereals, nes
• FCL 103 - Mixed grain
• FCL 92 - Quinoa
• FCL 15 - Wheat
• FCL 71 - Rye
• FCL 44 - Barley
• FCL 75 - Oats
• FCL 56 - Maize
• FCL 27 - Rice, paddy
• FCL 83 - Sorghum
• FCL 89 - Buckwheat
• FCL 101 - Canary seed
• FCL 94 - Fonio
• FCL 97 - Triticale
• FCL 79 - Millet

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the grain market in Africa. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.


Country coverage:
• Angola
• Benin
• Botswana
• Burkina Faso
• Burundi
• Cabo Verde
• Cameroon
• Central African Republic
• Chad
• Comoros
• Congo
• Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Djibouti
• Equatorial Guinea
• Eritrea
• Ethiopia
• Gabon
• Gambia
• Ghana
• Guinea
• Guinea-Bissau
• Kenya
• Lesotho
• Liberia
• Libya
• Madagascar
• Malawi
• Mali
• Mauritania
• Mauritius
• Mayotte
• Morocco
• Mozambique
• Namibia
• Niger
• Réunion
• Rwanda
• Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
• Sao Tome and Principe
• Senegal
• Seychelles
• Sierra Leone
• Somalia
• Sudan
• Swaziland
• Tanzania
• Togo
• Tunisia
• Uganda
• Zambia
• Zimbabwe
• Cote d'Ivoire
• Western Sahara
• South Sudan

Data coverage:
• Market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Production in Africa, split by region and country
• Trade (exports and imports) in Africa
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

2.1
KEY FINDINGS
2.2
MARKET TRENDS
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
5.4
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.5
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
7.3
HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY
8. IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2019
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2019
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

• Algeria
• Angola
• Benin
• Botswana
• Burkina Faso
• Burundi
• Cabo Verde
• Cameroon
• Central African Republic
• Chad
• Comoros
• Congo
• Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Djibouti
• Egypt
• Equatorial Guinea
• Eritrea
• Ethiopia
• Gabon
• Gambia
• Ghana
• Guinea
• Guinea-Bissau
• Kenya
• Lesotho
• Liberia
• Libya
• Madagascar
• Malawi
• Mali
• Mauritania
• Mauritius
• Mayotte
• Morocco
• Mozambique
• Namibia
• Niger
• Nigeria
• Réunion
• Rwanda
• Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
• Sao Tome and Principe
• Senegal
• Seychelles
• Sierra Leone
• Somalia
• South Africa
• Sudan
• Swaziland
• Tanzania
• Togo
• Tunisia
• Uganda
• Zambia
• Zimbabwe
• Cote d'Ivoire
• Western Sahara
• South Sudan
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2019
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2019
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2015–2019
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 6:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2019
Table 7:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2019
Table 8:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 9:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 10:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2019
Table 11:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 12:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 13:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2019
Table 14:
Producer Prices, By Major Producing Country, 2019
Table 15:
Producer Prices Index - Annual Data (2004-2006=100), By Major Producing Country
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2019
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2019
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Yield And Growth
Figure 11:
Exports And Growth
Figure 12:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 13:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 14:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 15:
Imports And Growth
Figure 16:
Import Prices
Figure 17:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 18:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 19:
Area Harvested, 2007–2019
Figure 20:
Yield, 2007–2019
Figure 21:
Production, By Country, 2019
Figure 22:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 23:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2019
Figure 24:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2019
Figure 25:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2019
Figure 26:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 27:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 28:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2019
Figure 29:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 30:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 31:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 32:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 33:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 34:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2019
Figure 35:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 36:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 37:
Export Prices, 2007–2019

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