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World - Saw Logs And Veneer Logs (Coniferous) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Update: COVID-19 Impact

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Article Publishing Date: Aug 18, 2020

The Pandemic to Put a Drag on the Growth of the Global Coniferous Saw Log And Veneer Log Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Saw Logs And Veneer Logs (Coniferous) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The Global Saw Log and Veneer Log Market Expanded Robustly Over the Last Decade

The global market for saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) totaled $68.8B in 2019, increasing by 2.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, taxes, and margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) in 2019 were the U.S. (261M cubic meters), Russia (168M cubic meters), and Canada (113M cubic meters), with a combined 46% share of global consumption. In value terms, the largest saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) markets worldwide were the U.S. ($13.2B), Russia ($9.3B), and Canada ($5.7B), together comprising 41% of the global market.

Sawlogs and veneer logs are one of the basic materials around the world, as they serve as raw materials for the production of sawn wood and all kinds of wood-based panels, which are widely used in construction, and, at a lesser extent, in industry. The key factor determining the development of the saw logs and veneer logs market is the dynamics of construction in a particular country, which, in turn, depends on a set of economic and social factors: population growth, employment and income of the population, economic growth of the country, rates of urbanization, investment volumes and the availability of credit resources for the population, which altogether reflect the overall GDP growth.

Over the past years, the global construction industry has grown at a steady pace thanks to residential construction and major investment infrastructure projects, in both emerging markets and some developed markets. The main driver of growth in the global construction industry was the growing demand from developing countries, mainly China and the countries of Southeast Asia. 

In these countries the economic growth rates are the highest in the world, which is accompanied by active urbanization and growth of the population's income; all this together leads to an expansion of the volume of housing, industrial, and infrastructural construction. The pace of construction in the United States was also high, which was due to both the growth of the economy and the tendency to move from large cities to the suburbs, as well as active immigration; these factors were especially relevant to the saw log market due to the high popularity of wood construction materials in America.

The Lockdown and Uncertainty in the Construction Sector to Hamper the Market Growth

Until 2020, the global economy has been developing steadily for five years, although at a slower pace than in the previous decade. The slowdown in global economic growth was caused by increased political uncertainty in the world and trade wars between the United States and China. According to the World Bank outlook from January 2020, the global economy was expected to pick up the growth momentum and increase by from +2.5% to +2.7% per year in the medium term.

In early 2020, however, the global economy entered a period of the crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to battle the spread of the virus, most countries in the world implemented quarantine measures that put on halt production and transport activity. The result will be a drop in GDP relative to previous years and a sharp fall in the demand for oil, which led to extremely low prices and heavy oil production cuts. 

The combination of those factors disrupts economic growth heavily throughout the world. According to World Bank forecasts, despite the gradual relaxing of restrictive measures and unprecedented government support in countries that faced the pandemic in early 2020, the annual decline of global GDP could amount to -5.2%, which is the deepest global recession being seen over the past eight decades.

In Asian countries, especially China, which faced the pandemic earlier than others, the epidemic situation improved earlier, with the quarantine measures largely relaxed, and the economy is gradually recovering from the forced outage. Thus, in China, by the end of 2020, an increase of 1% is expected (while a year earlier it was 6.1%), and in general in Southeast Asia in 2020, an increase of 0.5% is expected. In the medium term, it is assumed that the economy will gradually recover over several years as the restrictions are finally lifted.

The U.S., by contrast, is struggling with a drastic short-term recession, with the expected contraction of GDP of approx. -6.1% in 2020, as the hit of the pandemic was harder than expected, and unemployment soared due to the shutdown and social isolation. In the medium term, should the pandemic outbreak end in the second half of 2020, the economy is to start recovering in 2021 and then return to the market trend of the gradual growth, driven by the fundamentals existed before 2020 and boosted by support measures imposed by the government. In the European Union, the economy may plunge by 9% in 2020, in many other countries a comparable negative trend is also expected.

An additional serious risk for the medium-term recovery is the growth of geopolitical tensions in the world, especially between the United States and China, which are being drawn into a political confrontation on a wide range of issues. If sanctions and restrictions are tightened, it will hit global trade and worsen economic growth both in the United States and China and in many other countries involved in supply chains.

The construction sector has proven extremely vulnerable to the pandemic as due to quarantine measures, construction projects were paused, and the drop in incomes of the population makes mortgage loans less affordable. Thus, the above economic prerequisites will have the most negative impact on the production of building materials, and, therefore, on the consumption of saw logs and veneer logs. 

Taking into account the above, it is expected that in 2020 global consumption of saw logs and veneer logs will drop by approx. 5%. In the medium term, as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually. Overall, market performance is forecast to expand with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.2B cubic meters by the end of 2030.

Production

For the seventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in the production of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous), which increased by 1.8% to 1.2B cubic meters in 2019. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 when the production volume increased by 6.4% year-to-year. Global production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, the production of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) expanded modestly to $69.8B in 2019 estimated at export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9.4% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) in 2019 were the U.S. (278M cubic meters), Russia (181M cubic meters), and Canada (120M cubic meters), with a combined 49% share of global production. These countries were followed by Sweden, Finland, Brazil, New Zealand, Germany, Poland, Chile, China, and Japan, which together accounted for a further 30%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in New Zealand, while the production of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

In 2019, global imports of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) totaled 155M cubic meters, growing by 3.4% against 2018 figures. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when imports increased by 24% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 165M cubic meters in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, imports remained at a lower figure. In value terms, imports of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) contracted to $8.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

China Remains the Largest Market for Imported Coniferous Saw Logs and Veneer Logs

China was the key importer of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 69M cubic meters, which was approx. 45% of total imports in 2019. Austria (17M cubic meters) occupied an 11% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Sweden (7.3%), Japan (7%), Germany (6.8%) and South Korea (4.8%). Belgium (3.7M cubic meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports in China increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2007 to 2019. At the same time, Belgium (+7.5%), Germany (+5.3%), Sweden (+4.4%) and Austria (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +7.5% from 2007-2019. By contrast, South Korea (-3.4%) and Japan (-5.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. 

In value terms, China ($4.1B) constitutes the largest market for imported saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) worldwide, comprising 50% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Japan ($663M), with a 8.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Austria, with a 7.2% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to +5.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (-4.0% per year) and Austria (-1.0% per year).

The average import price for saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) stood at $53 per cubic meter in 2019, shrinking by -3.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 an increase of 17% y-o-y. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $63 per cubic meter. From 2009 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Japan ($61 per cubic meter), while Belgium ($34 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Product coverage:
• FCL 1601 - Sawlogs and veneer logs, coniferous

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global market for saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous). Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.



Data coverage:
• Global market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Global production, split by region and country
• Global trade (exports and imports)
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

2.1
KEY FINDINGS
2.2
MARKET TRENDS
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.4
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2019
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2019
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

United States
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Brazil
Italy
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Republic of Korea
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Sweden
Nigeria
Poland
Belgium
Argentina
Norway
Austria
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Colombia
Denmark
South Africa
Malaysia
Israel
Singapore
Egypt
Philippines
Finland
Chile
Ireland
Pakistan
Greece
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Czech Republic
Qatar
Peru
Romania
Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2019
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2019
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2015–2019
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 6:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 7:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 8:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2019
Table 9:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 10:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Table 11:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2019
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2019
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2019
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Exports And Growth
Figure 11:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 12:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 13:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 14:
Imports And Growth
Figure 15:
Import Prices
Figure 16:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 17:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 18:
Production, By Country, 2019
Figure 19:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 20:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 21:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 22:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2019
Figure 23:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 24:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 25:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 26:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 27:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2019
Figure 28:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2019
Figure 29:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 30:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2019
Figure 31:
Export Prices, 2007–2019

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