Global Oat Market Is Losing Its Steam

Cereals September 12, 2018
World - Oats - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

Format: Electronic (PDF) by email (February 21, 2019)

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Abstract
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IndexBox has just published a new report "World: Oats - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To XXX". Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Oats are widely used both in animal feeding and human consumption, with oat flour and flakes being consumed as an ingredient for oat cookies and other bakery, as well as in cereal breakfasts. In 2017, the volume of the global oats consumption stood at approx. XXX tons, not moving far from the 2016 figure.

After the volume of oat consumption peaked of XXX tons in 2007, from 2008 to 2017 it stood at a somewhat lower level and has failed to reach the 2007 figure in the XXX year period analyzed. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011, an increase of XXX% against the previous year level, indicating a worldwide post-crisis production growth and stabilization. Overall, 2007-2017 the market has been experiencing -XXX% CARG as a result of losing its attractiveness as animal feed compared to mixed feed, inability to compete with more profitable wheat and grist, and market over-supply in 2011 and 2013 which dropped prices, further discouraging oat farmers.

Russia (XXX tons) dominated the consumption of oats in 2017, accounting for XXX% of the world market. Russia's leadership is due to traditionally popular habit of using oats for food consumption and animal feed, and a relatively large population. Other large consumer countries are the U.S. (XXX tons) and Canada (XXX tons), together comprising XXX% of total consumption.

According to IndexBox forecasts, oat is losing its popularity globally as an animal feed, and some farmers also find it less profitable than growing wheat or grist, affecting the global scale of production and consumption. However, the Chinese market has a low degree of saturation which gives hopes to producers worldwide on increasing prices and consumption volumes as China is to start bringing their tariffs down in early 2019. Therefore, as some of the Chinese trade schemes have already been settled (with Australia, for example), and the Chinese market is expected to improve further, it is projected that the performance of the global market is forecast to attain a moderate growth. Thus, the volume of consumption is set to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +XXX% from 2018 to XXX to a figure of XXX tons in XXX.

How to Choose the Best Export Market for Suppliers of Oats

IndexBox analysts expect that one of the crucial initiatives to be considered by local producers in the long run would be the search for new overseas markets. Our analysts developed a step-by-step algorithm for solving this problem, based on the use of big data, which are processed by the IndexBox AI Platform. The decision-making logic is shown in the figure below.

In the process of determining the best export prospects, it is necessary to answer four key questions: 

XXX. Which markets performed best in terms of oat sales in the last XXX years? And which markets were among the outsiders?

XXX. Which countries are the most promising, in terms of oats consumption growth, and which ones are already saturated?

XXX. In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for oats? Or, in some cases, which countries do not produce oats, at all?

XXX. Which markets are the most profitable for oats producers?

Previously, in order to answer these questions, analysts would need at least XXX weeks and over XXX sources of information. Today, using only one tool - the IB AI-platform, you can answer this question in less than XXX minutes. 

So, here is the first chart and the first question: Which markets performed best in terms of oat sales growth in the last XXX years and reached high figures in 2017? And which markets were among the outsiders? Here we will compare the volumes of consumption and growth rates for all the countries under review.

We can see that our target is represented by large and growing markets, such as Brazil (XXX tons), The UK (XXX tons), Argentina (XXX tons), China (XXX tons) and Chile (XXX tons) also constituted the largest markets in 2017, but their growth rate was somewhat lower than that of Brazil. On the other hand, Russia (XXX tonnes), the U.S. (XXX tonnes), Canada (XXX tons), Poland (XXX tons) and Germany (XXX tons) constitute the world largest markets, but they are not currently expanding.

Next question: Which countries are the most promising, in terms of oat consumption growth, and which ones are already sufficiently saturated?

Here we estimate the average per capita consumption in 2017 and its dynamics since 2007. 

The chart enables identifying markets with a large and growing average per capita consumption. This group includes Latvia (XXX kg per person), Norway (XXX kg per person), also Poland (XXX kg per person), Chile (XXX kg per person) and Romania (XXX kg per person). A large and growing per capita consumption signifies consistently high popularity of oats in these markets. However, it might be a sign that these markets are close to saturation. Besides, in Finland (XXX kg per person), Sweden (XXX kg per person), Denmark (XXX kg per person), the per capita consumption is the world’s largest, but its growth in the past XXX years has been comparatively low, which also indicate high market saturation. 

In the third step, the question is the following: In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for oats if they produce it at all?

Further, our task is to identify countries with a high share of imports, which will testify of the existing infrastructure for importers and market prospects for organizing new supplies. 

The diagram shows that Germany with XXX tons and China with XXX tons of oats imported in 2017 are by far the largest importing markets that have been growing rapidly for the past XXX years. Mexico (XXX tonnes), Sweden (XXX tonnes) and Latvia (XXX tonnes) are also among large and growing importers. The U.S. (XXX tonnes) is the largest importer overall, but alongside with Spain (XXX tonnes), the UK and some others, its imports growth remains quite slow or even negative, compared to the leading countries.

Finally, basing on the counties left after our selection process, we will find markets with high and growing import prices to identify the most profitable ones to exports to.

These countries include France ($XXX per tonne), the UK ($XXX per tonne), Denmark ($XXX per tonne), and Italy ($XXX per tonne). Nonetheless, despite somewhat lower prices, China is one of the most promising markets due to its growing oat consumption, and high demand for imports. 

Summary

Comparing the results of the XXX diagrams, we can state that China, France, the UK, Denmark and Italy now appear to be the most promising markets for foreign suppliers of oats in the world. In these countries, there is either a significant or rapidly growing volume of imports. Moreover, import prices in most of the above-mentioned countries remain relatively high. On the other hand, the US is also an interesting option as the oat imports there are sufficiently large and import prices are growing slightly.

Using the IB AI-platform you can perform such an analysis and many other operations yourself. Our specialists will be happy to answer questions. It's our job to help you make informed decisions. 

Do you want to know more about the global oat market? Get the latest trends and insight from our report. It includes a wide range of statistics on

  • oat market share
  • oat prices
  • oat industry
  • oat  sales
  • oat import
  • oat export
  • oat market forecast
  • oat price forecast
  • key oat producers

Source: World: Oats - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To XXX

Product coverage: oats.

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global oat market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.

Country coverage: Worldwide - the report contains statistical data for 200 countries and includes detailed profiles of the 50 largest consuming countries (United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Brazil, Italy, Russian Federation, India, Canada, Australia, Republic of Korea, Spain, Mexico, Indonesia, Netherlands, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Sweden, Nigeria, Poland, Belgium, Argentina, Norway, Austria, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Colombia, Denmark, South Africa, Malaysia, Israel, Singapore, Egypt, Philippines, Finland, Chile, Ireland, Pakistan, Greece, Portugal, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Czech Republic, Qatar, Peru, Romania, Vietnam) + the largest producing countries.

Data coverage:
• Market volume and value;
• Per Capita consumption;
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term;
• Production, split by region and country;
• Trade (exports and imports);
• Export and import prices;
• Market trends, drivers and restraints;
• Key market players and their profiles.

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data;
• Find deeper insights into current market developments;
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market.

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues

1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
1.1 REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3 DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4 GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
2.1 KEY FINDINGS
2.2 MARKET TRENDS

3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
3.1 MARKET SIZE
3.2 CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3 MARKET FORECAST TO 2025

4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
NOTE: THIS CHAPTER IS AVAILABLE ONLY FOR PROFESSIONAL EDITION
4.1 TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2 BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3 MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4 MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5 MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
NOTE: THIS CHAPTER IS AVAILABLE ONLY FOR PROFESSIONAL EDITION
5.1 TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2 TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3 COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
5.4 TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.5 LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
NOTE: THIS CHAPTER IS AVAILABLE ONLY FOR PROFESSIONAL EDITION
6.1 TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2 TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3 UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4 TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5 MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
7.1 PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2 PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
7.3 HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY

8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
8.1 IMPORTS FROM 2007–2017
8.2 IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3 IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
9.1 EXPORTS FROM 2007–2017
9.2 EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3 EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

10. PRICES AND PRICE DEVELOPMENT
The Best Market Prices and Their Trend Patterns
10.1 PRODUCER PRICES
10.2 PRODUCER PRICES INDEX

11. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
NOTE: THIS CHAPTER IS AVAILABLE ONLY FOR PROFESSIONAL EDITION

12. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
NOTE: THIS CHAPTER IS AVAILABLE ONLY FOR PROFESSIONAL EDITION
United States
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Brazil
Italy
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Republic of Korea
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Sweden
Nigeria
Poland
Belgium
Argentina
Norway
Austria
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Colombia
Denmark
South Africa
Malaysia
Israel
Singapore
Egypt
Philippines
Finland
Chile
Ireland
Pakistan
Greece
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Czech Republic
Qatar
Peru
Romania
Vietnam

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Key Findings In 2017
Table 2: Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2017
Table 3: Market Value, 2007–2017
Table 4: Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2015-2017
Table 5: Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Table 6: Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2017
Table 7: Yield, By Country, 2007-2017
Table 8: Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Table 9: Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Table 10: Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2017
Table 11: Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Table 12: Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Table 13: Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2017
Table 14: Producer Prices, By Major Producing Country, 2017
Table 15: Producer Prices Index - Annual Data (2004-2006 = 100), By Major Producing Country

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2017
Figure 2: Market Value, 2007–2017
Figure 3: Consumption, By Country, 2017
Figure 4: Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 5: Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6: Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7: Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8: Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9: Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10: Yield And Growth
Figure 11: Exports And Growth
Figure 12: Export Prices And Growth
Figure 13: Market Size And Growth
Figure 14: Per Capita Consumption
Figure 15: Imports And Growth
Figure 16: Import Prices
Figure 17: Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2017
Figure 18: Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2017
Figure 19: Area Harvested, 2007–2017
Figure 20: Yield, 2007–2017
Figure 21: Production, By Country, 2017
Figure 22: Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Figure 23: Harvested Area, By Country, 2017
Figure 24: Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2017
Figure 25: Yield, By Country, 2007-2017
Figure 26: Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2017
Figure 27: Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2017
Figure 28: Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2017
Figure 29: Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Figure 30: Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Figure 31: Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2017
Figure 32: Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2017
Figure 33: Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2017
Figure 34: Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2017
Figure 35: Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Figure 36: Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2017
Figure 37: Export Prices, 2007–2017