Lithium Market Recovers on the Wave of Expanding Electric Vehicle Industry

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Lithium Carbonate - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The pandemic hit the main consuming industry (battery manufacturing) hard; lithium supplies on the global market exceeded demand, resulting in a fall in lithium prices.

In the second half of 2020, lithium demand started to recover, buoyed by strong battery sales. Strategic partnerships shaped during the Covid crisis enabled lithium manufacturers to secure stable product supply chains.

Key Trends and Insights

The second half of 2020 saw an increase in lithium demand, following the growth of the lithium-ion battery market. This sector accounts for 71% of global lithium consumption. After a fall during the pandemic, the market is forecast to expand to 200K tons by 2030 owing to quickly developing electric vehicle and electronic device industries, particularly in China (IndexBox estimates).

Amid the global course towards a circular economy, the number of planned lithium-ion reprocessing facilities is increasing worldwide. Lithium-ion batteries can be recycled, which now especially important against increasingly stringent environmental standards.

Despite the Covid crisis, technological and geological exploration companies secured diverse and reliable supplies of lithium for battery manufacturers, by establishing vertically integrated strategic partnerships and coordinating teamwork.

Overproduction and dwindling demand during the pandemic resulted in a fall in prices on the lithium market. In 2020, spot prices in China fell from the beginning of the year through to November: prices for lithium carbonate fell from $7.1K per ton to $6.2K per ton, from $7.8K per ton to $7Кper ton for lithium hydroxide and from $83Кper ton to $71K per ton for metallic lithium. In the USA, the average annual price of lithium carbonate stood at $8К per ton in 2020, a drop of 37% against 2019 prices.

The development of the electric vehicle industry, particularly in China, and electronic devices should generate further lithium market growth. Despite competition from lithium substitute products (calcium can be used in batteries as an alternative to lithium), the lithium market is set to expand rapidly over the next decade.

Current lithium reserves exceed 21М tons, and continuing geological exploration worldwide implies that the number of lithium deposits detected should increase. Thus, no potential lithium shortages are expected in the next decade. The largest lithium reserves are located in Chile (9.2M tons), Australia (4.7M tons), Argentina (1.9M tons) and China (1.5M tons).

Global Lithium Carbonate Exports

After six years of growth, overseas shipments of lithium carbonates decreased by -12.6% to 110K tons in 2020. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eight years.

In value terms, lithium carbonate exports dropped notably to $769M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. Overall, exports, however, posted buoyant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 102% against the previous year.

Chile was the main exporting country with an export of about 68K tons, which reached 62% of total exports. Argentina (23K tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by China (7.5K tons). All these countries together occupied approx. 28% share of total exports. The following exporters - Belgium (4.5K tons) and Germany (2.1K tons) - together made up 6% of total exports.

China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +12.3% from 2012-2020. By contrast, Germany (-1.6%) and Belgium (-2.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, Chile ($478M) remains the largest lithium carbonate supplier worldwide, comprising 62% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Argentina ($133M), with a 17% share of global exports. It was followed by China, with a 7.9% share.

Global Lithium Oxide and Hydroxide Exports

In 2020, overseas shipments of lithium oxide and hydroxides decreased by -38.1% to 75K tons for the first time since 2013, thus ending a six-year rising trend. In value terms, lithium oxide and hydroxide exports dropped to $915M in 2020.

China was the main exporting country with an export of around 50K tons, which amounted to 66% of total exports. Chile (9.1K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by the U.S. (5.8K tons) and Russia (5.3K tons). All these countries together held approx. 27% share of total exports. Belgium (1.9K tons) held a little share of total exports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of lithium oxide and hydroxides exports, with a CAGR of +39.5% from 2012 to 2020. By contrast, the U.S. (-1.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, China ($627M) remains the largest lithium oxide and hydroxide supplier worldwide, comprising 68% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Chile ($136M), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by the U.S., with a 7.2% share.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform