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World - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Update: COVID-19 Impact

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Article Publishing Date: Mar 23, 2021

The Global Ethanol Market to Make a Bet on Antiseptics Amid a Pandemic and Cheap Oil

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends, and Insights. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

In 2020, the use of ethanol as a fuel additive became unprofitable, threatening plans to switch to environmentally friendly fuels, but the demand for alcohol-based disinfectants increased significantly. 

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, the use of ethanol as a fuel additive declined sharply due to the low traffic intensity during the lockdown and a 9% drop in gasoline consumption compared to the previous year.

With low oil prices and the high cost of corn feedstock for bioethanol production, the use of the latter as biofuel becomes unprofitable and threatens countries' plans to switch to environmentally friendly fuels. 

In 2020-2021, China imported expensive ethanol from the U.S. to maintain the consumption of environmentally friendly E10 gasoline, containing a 10% ethanol mixture, regulated at the national level. Tightening supplies of domestic corn and high ethanol prices within the country forced China to take this step, despite 45% tariffs on U.S. cargoes are still in place in China. 

During the pandemic, the demand for alcohol-based disinfectants increased significantly. Some large ethanol producers have reoriented to sanitizer production. Despite the significant costs of retooling production lines, it is expected that the increased sanitizer demand to continue for several years, even when the pandemic subsides. 

The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 91B liters by the end of 2030.

Consumption by Country

In 2019, the global ethanol market increased by 5.3% to $53.8B, rising for the third consecutive year after three years of decline. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a pronounced decline. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $64B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The U.S. (36B liters) remains the largest ethanol-consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 45% of the total volume. Moreover, ethanol consumption in the U.S. exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (11B liters), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by India (4.5B liters), with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the U.S. stood at -3.9%. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+3.0% per year) and India (+3.4% per year).

In value terms, the U.S. ($25.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China ($7.2B). India followed it.

In 2019, the highest levels of ethanol per capita consumption were registered in the U.S. (110 liters per person), followed by Canada (36 liters per person), Germany (19 liters per person), and Brazil (10 liters per person), while the world average per capita consumption of ethanol was estimated at 10 liters per person.

In the U.S., ethanol per capita consumption declined by an average annual rate of -4.6% over the period from 2012-2019. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Canada (+2.9% per year) and Germany (+1.8% per year).

Global Production

In 2019, production of ethyl alcohol increased by 1.5% to 81B liters, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 86B liters in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production by Country

The U.S. (41B liters) remains the largest ethanol-producing country worldwide, accounting for 51% of total volume. Moreover, ethanol production in the U.S. exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (10B liters), fourfold. India (3.9B liters) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.8% share.

In the U.S., ethanol production declined by an average annual rate of -2.1% over the period from 2012-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: China (+1.7% per year) and India (+0.6% per year).

Global Exports

In 2019, overseas shipments of ethyl alcohol decreased by -4.6% to 16B liters for the first time since 2014, thus ending a four-year rising trend. In general, total exports indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last seven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, exports increased by +73.1% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. As a result, exports attained a peak of 17B liters, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

In value terms, ethanol exports stood at $8.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global exports attained the peak figure at $8.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

The U.S. was the major exporting country with an export of about 6.8B liters, which recorded 42% of total exports. Brazil (1.8B liters) held the second position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (1.5B liters) and France (0.9B liters). All these countries together held approx. 26% share of total exports. Pakistan (660M liters), Hungary (639M liters), Belgium (544M liters), Germany (451M liters) and Spain (316M liters) occupied a minor share of total exports.

Exports from the U.S. increased at an average annual rate of +13.0% from 2012 to 2019. At the same time, Pakistan (+18.4%), Hungary (+13.1%), the Netherlands (+12.5%), Germany (+11.0%), Spain (+10.4%) and Belgium (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +18.4% from 2012-2019. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Brazil (-6.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2019, the share of the U.S., the Netherlands, Pakistan, and Hungary increased by +16%, +3.4%, +2.3%, and +1.5% percentage points, while France (-2.8 p.p.) and Brazil (-16 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the U.S. ($2.5B) remains the largest ethanol supplier worldwide, comprising 28% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($1B), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Brazil, with an 11% share.

In the U.S., ethanol exports expanded at a CAGR of +3.3% over the period from 2012-2019. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+7.1% per year) and Brazil (-10.6% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average ethanol export price stood at $0.5 per liter in 2019, surging by 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a deep reduction. The global export price peaked at $0.8 per liter in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Spain ($0.8 per liter), while the U.S. ($0.4 per liter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Product coverage:
• Prodcom 20147400 - Undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume. .80 % (important: excluding alcohol duty)
• Prodcom 20147500 - Denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits, of any strength

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global ethanol market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.



Data coverage:
• Global market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Global production, split by region and country
• Global trade (exports and imports)
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

2.1
KEY FINDINGS
2.2
MARKET TRENDS
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.4
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2020
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2020
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

United States
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Brazil
Italy
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Republic of Korea
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Sweden
Nigeria
Poland
Belgium
Argentina
Norway
Austria
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Colombia
Denmark
South Africa
Malaysia
Israel
Singapore
Egypt
Philippines
Finland
Chile
Ireland
Pakistan
Greece
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Czech Republic
Qatar
Peru
Romania
Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2020
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2020
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 6:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 7:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 8:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2020
Table 9:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 10:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 11:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2020
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2020
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Exports And Growth
Figure 11:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 12:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 13:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 14:
Imports And Growth
Figure 15:
Import Prices
Figure 16:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 17:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 18:
Production, By Country, 2020
Figure 19:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 20:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 21:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 22:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 23:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 24:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 25:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 26:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 27:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 28:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 29:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 30:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 31:
Export Prices, 2007–2020

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