Ceramic Tiles and Porcelain Stoneware Market: Looking for the Best Countries for Exports

Ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware are one of the basic building and finishing materials in the world.  In 2017, the world market for ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware increased by 4%, compared to the previous year and amounted to 13.2 billion sq. m. 

From 2010-2017, world consumption of ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware consistently increased against the backdrop of post-crisis recovery of the world economy and growth of construction in China; before that, the market fluctuated slightly, remaining fairly stable on the whole. As a result, the consumption of ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware increased by 60% over the past ten years. The average annual growth rate from 2007 to 2017 was +4.9%. 

China (6.1 billion sq. m.) dominated the consumption of ceramic tile and porcelain stoneware in 2017, accounting for 46% of the world market. China's leadership is due to high construction volumes amid strong economic growth and a large population. Other large consumer countries were India (793 million sq. m.), Brazil (644 million sq. m.), Vietnam (536 million sq. m.), Indonesia (407 million sq. m.), Iran (393 million sq. m.), the United States (268 million sq. m.), Turkey (250 million sq. m.), Mexico (205 million sq. m.) and Russia (198 million sq. m.), together covering 28% of the global market.

According to IndexBox forecasts, the global construction industry will grow at a steady pace over the next years, largely due to infrastructure investment projects (or investment in infrastructure), both in emerging markets and in some developed markets. It is expected that the world market for ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware will maintain its current growth trend and will expand at an average annual rate of 3.9% from 2018-2025, which will lead the market to 18.0 billion sq. m. by 2025.

How to Choose the Best Export Market for Suppliers of Ceramic Tiles and Porcelain Stoneware

One of the key business tasks that the ceramic market participants are forced to solve is the search for new overseas markets. Our analysts developed a step-by-step algorithm for solving this problem, based on the use of big data, which are processed by the IndexBox AI Platform. The decision-making logic is shown in the figure below.

In the process of determining the best export prospects, it is necessary to answer four key questions: 

1. Which markets performed best in terms of ceramic tile sales in the last 5 years? And which markets were among the outsiders?

2. Which countries are the most promising, in terms of ceramic tile consumption growth, and which ones are already saturated?

3. In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for ceramic tiles? Or, in some cases, which countries do not produce ceramic tile, at all?

4. Which markets are the most profitable for ceramic tile producers?

Previously, in order to answer these questions, analysts would need at least 6 weeks and over 400 sources of information. Today, using only one tool - the IB AI-platform, you can answer this question in less than 5 minutes. 

So, the first question: Which markets performed best in terms of ceramic tile sales in the last 5 years? And which markets were among the outsiders?

In order to determine the largest consumer markets, compare the volumes and dynamics of the countries producing ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware. 

Following the review, we see that the target interest is represented by large and growing markets, such as China (6.1 billion sq. m.), India (793 million sq. m.), Vietnam (536 million sq. m.), Indonesia (407 million sq. m.) and Iran (393 million sq. m.).

Next question: Which countries are the most promising, in terms of ceramic tile consumption growth, and which ones are already saturated?

In order to answer the second question and identify countries whose market is far from saturation, we estimate the average per capita consumption and its dynamics. 

The diagram enables identifying markets with a large and growing average per capita consumption. This group includes the United Arab Emirates (12 square meters per person), Vietnam (5.6 square meters/person), Saudi Arabia (4.5 square meters per capita), China (4.3 square meters per capita), Chile (3.6 square meters per capita), Peru (3.4 square meters per capita) and some other countries. A large and growing per capita consumption signifies consistently high popularity of tiles in these markets.

In the third step, we shall answer the following question: In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for ceramic tiles? Or, in some cases, which countries do not produce ceramic tile at all?

Further, our task is to identify countries with a high share of imports, which will testify of the existing infrastructure for importers and market prospects for organizing new supplies. 

The diagram shows that Chile (65 million square meters), Thailand (55M square meters), Russia (53M square meters), Saudi Arabia (47M square meters) and Peru (36M square meters) are large and fast-growing importers of ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware. On the other hand, the U.S. continues to boast the largest volume of imports (181M square meters), though it declined slightly over the recent years.

Finally, we determine the countries where imports are the most profitable. Define countries with high and growing import prices. 

Since this category features countries with the highest import prices, which continue to grow, they are the lucrative markets for foreign suppliers of ceramic tiles. These countries include Indonesia ($12 per square meter), the U.S. ($12 per square meter), Saudi Arabia ($10 per square meter), Germany ($9.4 per square meter) and South Korea ($8.9 per square meter). 

Summary

Comparing the results of the 4 diagrams, we can state that Indonesia, China, the United States, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Iran, France, Germany and the Netherlands now appear to be the most promising markets for foreign suppliers of ceramic tile and porcelain stoneware in the world. In these countries, there is either a significant or rapidly growing volume of imports. Moreover, import prices in most of the above-mentioned countries remain relatively high.

Using the IB AI-platform you can perform such an analysis and many other operations yourself. Our specialists will be happy to answer questions. It's our job to help you make informed decisions. 

Source: IndexBox AI Platform