World - Aluminum - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights
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World - Aluminum - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights
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Article Publishing Date: Aug 2, 2021

Aluminum Prices to Accelerate on Robust Demand from Construction and Alternative Energy

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Aluminum - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

Prices for aluminum this year will remain low thanks to the consistent growth in global production of the metal overcoming obstacles caused by the pandemic. In the mid-term, demand for aluminum in the construction sector and car manufacturing is forecast to steadily rise. The rapid development of alternative energy sources will also drive the market up because aluminum is used in the production of solar batteries, wind generators and other components of energy facilities. In China, the launch of quotas on greenhouse gas emissions could lead to higher prices for aluminum as production for the metal in the country leaves a heavy carbon footprint.

Key Trends and Insights

This month, prices worldwide in the aluminum market stabilized. Throughout the first half of 2021, the price per tonne of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fluctuated between $1952 and $2565 and dropped to about $2500 per tonne in July. According to the World Bank's April predictions, by 2035, the price for aluminum should grow by 20% in comparison with the yearly average in 2021.

Global aluminum production is consistently rising. Based on USGS figures, IndexBox calculates that in 2020 it rose by 3% to 65.5M tonnes. During the pandemic, demand from the automotive and aerospace industries decreased, but in the second half of the year this was offset by a heightened need for construction materials and increased sales of aluminum-can beverages while the food service sector faced harsh restrictions.

In the mid-term, high-paced construction in the U.S., India and the EU will demand for aluminum. Rapid development in the electric car industry in China as well as the wide-spread adoption of alternative sources of energy will also powerfully affect market expansion. Aluminum is used in the manufacturing of key renewable energy components - solar batteries, thermal collectors, wind turbines, photovoltaic solar power systems and concentrating solar thermal power plants. IndexBox thus expects robust growth in the aluminum market over the next decade, which by 2030 could reach 94M tonnes.

China is far in the lead for consumption of aluminum with a 59% share of the global market. It is also in second place worldwide for imports, significantly influencing international trade of the metal. In China, more than 80% of aluminum is produced with electricity from coal-fired power plants and emits a massive amount of carbon dioxide gas.

There is concern that China's new environmental policies designed to decrease greenhouse gas emissions could lead to an increase in aluminum prices on the international market. This July, China launched a carbon emission market where in the mid-term, enterprises in the aluminum industry can participate in buying and selling permits to emit carbon dioxide. Producers of the metal will have to invest funds into methods to capture and recycle greenhouse gases or buy surplus carbon emissions to increase their quotas. These actions could raise the expenses for aluminum producers and stall growth in production.

Aluminum Consumption by Country

The global aluminum market expanded slightly to $133.9B in 2020, picking up by 1.9% against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2020.

China (39M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of aluminum consumption, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, aluminum consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the U.S. (4.1M tonnes), tenfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Japan (2M tonnes), with a 3% share.

From 2012 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +6.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the U.S. (-1.0% per year) and Japan (-3.7% per year).

In value terms, China ($79.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($8.5B). It was followed by Germany.

The countries with the highest levels of aluminum per capita consumption in 2020 were China (27 kg per person), Germany (24 kg per person) and South Korea (20 kg per person).

Aluminum Imports by Country

In 2020, overseas purchases of aluminum increased to 25M tonnes. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, aluminum imports amounted to $47.9B (IndexBox estimates).

In 2020, the U.S. (3.5M tonnes), followed by China (2.3M tonnes), Japan (2.1M tonnes), Germany (2M tonnes), Malaysia (1.6M tonnes), South Korea (1.4M tonnes) and Turkey (1.2M tonnes) represented the major importers of aluminum, together constituting 55% of total imports. Italy (1,058K tonnes), the Netherlands (1,045K tonnes), Taiwan (Chinese) (865K tonnes), Poland (671K tonnes), Spain (627K tonnes) and Thailand (583K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, the U.S. ($7B), Germany ($3.8B) and China ($3.8B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2020, with a combined 31% share of global imports. These countries were followed by Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Turkey, the Netherlands, Italy, Taiwan (Chinese), Poland, Spain and Thailand, which together accounted for a further 43%.

The average aluminum import price stood at $1,878 per tonne in 2020, dropping by -7.8% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2020, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the U.S. ($1,970 per tonne) and Germany ($1,966 per tonne), while China ($1,665 per tonne) and Japan ($1,746 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global aluminum market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.


Product coverage:
• Prodcom 24421130 - Unwrought non-alloy aluminium (excluding powders and flakes)
• Prodcom 24421154 - Unwrought aluminium alloys (excluding aluminium powders and flakes)

Data coverage:
• Global market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Global production, split by region and country
• Global trade (exports and imports)
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

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This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

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1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
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5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
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8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.4
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2021
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2021
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

United States
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Brazil
Italy
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Republic of Korea
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Sweden
Nigeria
Poland
Belgium
Argentina
Norway
Austria
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Colombia
Denmark
South Africa
Malaysia
Israel
Singapore
Egypt
Philippines
Finland
Chile
Ireland
Pakistan
Greece
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Czech Republic
Qatar
Peru
Romania
Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2021
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2021
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2021
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 6:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 7:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 8:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2021
Table 9:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 10:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 11:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2021
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2021
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2021
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2030
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Exports And Growth
Figure 11:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 12:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 13:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 14:
Imports And Growth
Figure 15:
Import Prices
Figure 16:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 17:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 18:
Production, By Country, 2021
Figure 19:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 20:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 21:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 22:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2021
Figure 23:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 24:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 25:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 26:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 27:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 28:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2021
Figure 29:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 30:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 31:
Export Prices, 2007–2021
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