Global Aluminium Market: Russia Could Lose Export Earnings, Europe to See Higher Prices

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Aluminum - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The global aluminium market will see significant changes this year. Due to sanction restrictions, many key importers may refuse purchases from Russia, which could result in global supply chain disruptions. Russia is the second-largest supplier in the global aluminium market, accounting for 11% of total supplies.

Approximately 78% of Russian aluminium exports are sent to ten countries, namely Turkey (20%), Japan (14%), China (10%), the Netherlands (9%), the U.S. (7%), Greece (5%), Chinese Taiwan (4%), Italy (3%), South Korea (3%), and Norway (3%). Financial and logistic sanctions posed on Russia amid its conflict with Ukraine could damage supply chains, leading to local metal shortages in European countries and the U.S. and higher aluminium prices. Russia may lose its share in global aluminium exports due to possible secondary sanctions on countries that will continue importing from the country. Competitors like Canada and India are also likely to attempt to drive out Russia from the market.

Russia's Aluminium Exports

In 2021, the amount of aluminum exported from Russia soared to 4M tons, rising by 50% compared with the previous year. In value terms, supplies skyrocketed to $7.9B.

Turkey (807K tons), Japan (542K tons) and China (410K tons) were the main destinations of aluminum exports from Russia, with a combined 44% share of total volume. In value terms, Turkey ($1.5B), Japan ($1.1B) and China ($720M) constituted the largest markets for aluminum exported from Russia worldwide, together comprising 42% of total supplies.

In terms of the main countries of destination, China saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports in 2021. Supplies to China rose more than threefold, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Global Aluminium Exports in 2020

The amount of aluminium exported worldwide stood at 24M tons in 2020, increasing by 2.3% on the year before. In value terms, supplies amounted to $44.7B.

The shipments of the eight major exporters of aluminium, namely Canada (2.9M tons), Russia (2.7M tons), India (2.1M tons), the United Arab Emirates (2.0M tons), the Netherlands (1.9M tons), Malaysia (1.5M tons), Australia (1.4M tons) and Norway (1.3M tons), represented more than half of total supplies. The following exporters - South Africa (594K tons), Germany (482K tons), Saudi Arabia (476K tons), Bahrain (469K tons) and the U.S. (424K tons) - each finished at a 10% share of total volume.

In value terms, Canada ($5.4B), Russia ($4.2B) and India ($3.9B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 30% share of global supplies. The Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Norway, Malaysia, Australia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Bahrain and the U.S. lagged somewhat behind, comprising a further 43%.

Leading Aluminium Importers

In 2020, the U.S. (3.5M tons), followed by the Netherlands (2.2M tons), Japan (2.1M tons), Germany (1.9M tons), Malaysia (1.6M tons), South Korea (1.4M tons), and Turkey (1.2M tons) represented the major importers of aluminium, together mixing up 57% of total purchases. Italy (1,058K tons), Poland (675K tons), Spain (657K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (602K tons), Thailand (583K tons) and Mexico (512K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, the U.S. ($7B), the Netherlands ($4.1B) and Germany ($3.8B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2020, with a combined 32% share of global supplies.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform