EU - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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EU - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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Article Publishing Date: Jan 7, 2022

EU Grain Prices to Drop on Lower Feed Demand, but Rising Energy Costs Impugn Forecast

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'EU - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

By 2024, EU grain prices are expected to decrease moderately due to falling demand for livestock feed. There's a risk that if high prices for gas and a related fertilizer imbalance continue for several years, they may negate effects from the demand change. Expected increases in consumption of organic produce could also buoy the prices. By 2025, grain trade in the EU will decline by 8% to 84M tonnes due to diminished production and tough competition in global markets.

Key Trends and Insights

According to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook, there will be a decrease in the livestock herd in the EU in the next two years, causing lower demand for feed and a subsequent drop in grain prices. In 2024, wheat prices should decline from 206 to 178 euros per tonne, barley from 189 to 174 euros per tonne, and maize from 206 to 165 euros per tonne. This scenario is only possible if gas prices fall and the fertilizer imbalance is eliminated. However, high gas costs make fertilizer production in the EU less profitable and limit the possibility of a drop in prices in the next few years.

Demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the EU will remain stable, while consumption of phosphorus fertilizers will expand, driven by an increase in the input per hectare. As EU countries do not have enough phosphorus supply, a large share of the gains in consumption will be balanced by imports from the U.S., Morocco and China.

In 2025, grain prices will rise again due to higher energy resources and fertilizers costs. By 2031, costs per tonne for wheat are expected to reach 202 euros, barley - 183 euros and maize - 182 euros.

Demand for organic produce will continue to grow as Europeans place more and more preference on healthy products. This additionally will push prices up as the yield for organic produce is lower than with conventional crops due to the less aggressive use of fertilizers and pesticides.

The EU is forecast to remain competitive on the global grain market, although its share in the global exports will decrease due to tough competition from other key players, especially from the Black Sea region. Grain trade in the EU will reduce by 8% to 84M tonnes in 2025 (IndexBox estimates).

EU Grain Trade

In 2020, the amount of grain exported in the EU stood at 91M tonnes, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. In value terms, exports rose significantly to $23.2B.

France was the major exporting country with about 32M tonnes, which accounted for 35% of total exports. Germany (12M tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Romania (11M tonnes), Poland (9M tonnes) and Lithuania (4.9M tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 41% share of exports in the EU. The Czech Republic (3.4M tonnes), Latvia (3.4M tonnes), Slovakia (2M tonnes), Croatia (1.9M tonnes), Sweden (1.8M tonnes) and Denmark (1.6M tonnes) occupied a minor share of the total supplies.

In value terms, France ($7.7B) remains the largest grain supplier in the EU, comprising 33% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($2.8B), with a 12% share, followed by Romania (10% share).

In France, grain exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% in 2020. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+56.7% y-o-y) and Romania (-15.7% y-o-y).

The grain export price in the EU stood at $255 per tonne in 2020, picking up by 5% against the previous year. Major exporting countries recorded the following prices: France ($245 per tonne), Germany ($230 per tonne). In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the grain market in the EU. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.


Product coverage:
• FCL 108 - Cereals, nes
• FCL 103 - Mixed grain
• FCL 92 - Quinoa
• FCL 15 - Wheat
• FCL 71 - Rye
• FCL 44 - Barley
• FCL 75 - Oats
• FCL 56 - Maize
• FCL 27 - Rice, paddy
• FCL 83 - Sorghum
• FCL 89 - Buckwheat
• FCL 101 - Canary seed
• FCL 94 - Fonio
• FCL 97 - Triticale
• FCL 79 - Millet

Data coverage:
• Market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Production in the EU, split by region and country
• Trade (exports and imports) in the EU
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
5.4
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.5
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
7.3
HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY
8. IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2021
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2021
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

• Austria
• Belgium
• Bulgaria
• Croatia
• Cyprus
• Czech Republic
• Denmark
• Estonia
• Finland
• France
• Germany
• Greece
• Hungary
• Ireland
• Italy
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Luxembourg
• Malta
• Netherlands
• Poland
• Portugal
• Romania
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• Spain
• Sweden
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2021
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2021
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2021
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 6:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2021
Table 7:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2021
Table 8:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 9:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 10:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2021
Table 11:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 12:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Table 13:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2021
Table 14:
Producer Prices, By Major Producing Country, 2021
Table 15:
Producer Prices Index - Annual Data (2004-2006=100), By Major Producing Country
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2021
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2021
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2030
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Yield And Growth
Figure 11:
Exports And Growth
Figure 12:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 13:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 14:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 15:
Imports And Growth
Figure 16:
Import Prices
Figure 17:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 18:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 19:
Area Harvested, 2007–2021
Figure 20:
Yield, 2007–2021
Figure 21:
Production, By Country, 2021
Figure 22:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 23:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2021
Figure 24:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2021
Figure 25:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2021
Figure 26:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 27:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 28:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2021
Figure 29:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 30:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 31:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 32:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 33:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2021
Figure 34:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2021
Figure 35:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 36:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2021
Figure 37:
Export Prices, 2007–2021
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