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EU - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: Apr 1, 2024

EU - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Article Publishing Date: Jan 7, 2022

EU Grain Prices to Drop on Lower Feed Demand, but Rising Energy Costs Impugn Forecast

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'EU - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

By 2024, EU grain prices are expected to decrease moderately due to falling demand for livestock feed. There's a risk that if high prices for gas and a related fertilizer imbalance continue for several years, they may negate effects from the demand change. Expected increases in consumption of organic produce could also buoy the prices. By 2025, grain trade in the EU will decline by 8% to 84М tons due to diminished production and tough competition in global markets.

Key Trends and Insights

According to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook, there will be a decrease in the livestock herd in the EU in the next two years, causing lower demand for feed and a subsequent drop in grain prices. In 2024, wheat prices should decline from 206 to 178 euros per ton, barley from 189 to 174 euros per ton, and maize from 206 to 165 euros per ton. This scenario is only possible if gas prices fall and the fertilizer imbalance is eliminated. However, high gas costs make fertilizer production in the EU less profitable and limit the possibility of a drop in prices in the next few years.

Demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the EU will remain stable, while consumption of phosphorus fertilizers will expand, driven by an increase in the input per hectare. As EU countries do not have enough phosphorus supply, a large share of the gains in consumption will be balanced by imports from the U.S., Morocco and China.

In 2025, grain prices will rise again due to higher energy resources and fertilizers costs. By 2031, costs per ton for wheat are expected to reach 202 euros, barley - 183 euros and maize - 182 euros.

Demand for organic produce will continue to grow as Europeans place more and more preference on healthy products. This additionally will push prices up as the yield for organic produce is lower than with conventional crops due to the less aggressive use of fertilizers and pesticides.

The EU is forecast to remain competitive on the global grain market, although its share in the global exports will decrease due to tough competition from other key players, especially from the Black Sea region. Grain trade in the EU will reduce by 8% to 84М tons in 2025 (IndexBox estimates).

EU Grain Trade

In 2020, the amount of grain exported in the EU stood at 91M tons, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. In value terms, exports rose significantly to $23.2B.

France was the major exporting country with about 32M tons, which accounted for 35% of total exports. Germany (12M tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Romania (11M tons), Poland (9M tons) and Lithuania (4.9M tons). All these countries together took approx. 41% share of exports in the EU. The Czech Republic (3.4M tons), Latvia (3.4M tons), Slovakia (2M tons), Croatia (1.9M tons), Sweden (1.8M tons) and Denmark (1.6M tons) occupied a minor share of the total supplies.

In value terms, France ($7.7B) remains the largest grain supplier in the EU, comprising 33% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($2.8B), with a 12% share, followed by Romania (10% share).

In France, grain exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% in 2020. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+56.7% y-o-y) and Romania (-15.7% y-o-y).

The grain export price in the EU stood at $255 per ton in 2020, picking up by 5% against the previous year. Major exporting countries recorded the following prices: France ($245 per ton), Germany ($230 per ton). In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

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Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the grain market in the EU. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • FCL 108 - Cereals, nes
  • FCL 103 - Mixed grain
  • FCL 92 - Quinoa
  • FCL 15 - Wheat
  • FCL 71 - Rye
  • FCL 44 - Barley
  • FCL 75 - Oats
  • FCL 56 - Maize
  • FCL 27 - Rice, paddy
  • FCL 83 - Sorghum
  • FCL 89 - Buckwheat
  • FCL 101 - Canary seed
  • FCL 94 - Fonio
  • FCL 97 - Triticale
  • FCL 79 - Millet

Country coverage:

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Production in the EU, split by region and country
  • Trade (exports and imports) in the EU
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
    3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
    4. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    5. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
    2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
    3. HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. 11. COUNTRY PROFILES

    The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    • Austria
    • Belgium
    • Bulgaria
    • Croatia
    • Cyprus
    • Czech Republic
    • Denmark
    • Estonia
    • Finland
    • France
    • Germany
    • Greece
    • Hungary
    • Ireland
    • Italy
    • Latvia
    • Lithuania
    • Luxembourg
    • Malta
    • Netherlands
    • Poland
    • Portugal
    • Romania
    • Slovakia
    • Slovenia
    • Spain
    • Sweden

  12. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2023
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    3. Market Value, 2012–2023
    4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2023
    5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    6. Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
    7. Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
    8. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    9. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    10. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2023
    11. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    12. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    13. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2023

  13. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    2. Market Value, 2012–2023
    3. Consumption, By Country, 2023
    4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    10. Production Volume And Growth
    11. Yield And Growth
    12. Exports And Growth
    13. Export Prices And Growth
    14. Market Size And Growth
    15. Per Capita Consumption
    16. Imports And Growth
    17. Import Prices
    18. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    19. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    20. Area Harvested, 2012–2023
    21. Yield, 2012–2023
    22. Production, By Country, 2023
    23. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    24. Harvested Area, By Country, 2023
    25. Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
    26. Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
    27. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    28. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    29. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    30. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    31. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    32. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2023
    33. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    34. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    35. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    36. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    37. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    38. Export Prices, 2012–2023

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