U.S. Stationery Manufacturing Is in Decline

Other Paper Products May 30, 2016
Author: Sergey Avramenko
Head of Global Markets Research Team

From 2008 to 2015, the U.S. stationery market showed mixed dynamics. A gradual decrease from 2009 to 2011 was followed by growth over the next two years, until the market plunged again. In 2015, the stationery market was estimated at 6,617 million USD.

Amid the current economic recovery and rising corporate buyers' demand, U.S. growth in stationery consumption is expected to accelerate to 0.8% (currently -2.9%) in the medium term.

U.S. stationery manufacturing illustrated negative dynamics over the last few years. In 2015, the value of shipments in the industry was estimated at 5.8 billion USD, falling with a CAGR of -3.2% from 2008 to 2015. In order to reach the pre-recession production level achieved in 2008, stationery output will have to grow more than 20%.

China and, distantly, Mexico were the main suppliers of stationery into the U.S., with a combined share of 70% (based on USD) of total U.S. imports in 2015. However, the fastest growing supplier from 2007 to 2015 was Viet Nam (+7.2% per year). China strengthened its position in the U.S. import structure, from 50% in 2007 to 56% in 2015. By contrast, Mexico saw its share reduced to 3%.

In 2015, exports accounted for 3.4% of U.S. stationery output. Due to low trade intensity, exports should not be regarded as strong factors influencing U.S. market dynamics in the medium term. In 2015, the main destination of U.S. stationery exports was Canada (61%). Overall, the share exported to Mexico increased (+4 percentage points), while the share sent to Canada illustrated negative dynamics (-8 percentage points).

Net U.S. imports of stationery have shown a negative trend since 2007. In 2015, this industry ran a significant trade deficit of 806 million USD, which amounted to approximately 80% of gross imports. This deficit could grow substantially in the years to come.

Source: U.S. Stationery Product Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2020