The decline in banana imports from abroad is linked to the problems currently being faced by growers in Guatemala and Honduras: they were forced to use chemicals to save the harvest crop.
The USA is the largest global consumer of environmentally-friendly food and drink products (organic products), which are produced without the use of artificial pesticides, mineral fertilizers, artificial food additives or GMOs. From 2008-2015, retail sales of organic food products on the U.S. market increased on average by X% a year, reaching $X billion. Organic bananas were amongst those products that recorded high demand: their price markup does not usually exceed X% of the price of conventional bananas.
IndexBox analysts can confirm that in 2015, the average annual retail price for organic and conventional bananas in the USA amounted to $X and $X, respectively. In comparison, the price markup on organic berries can be as high as X%. This explains why a consumer's initial introduction to the organic food products market often begins with the purchase of organic bananas.
From 2007-2015, the U.S. consumption of all types of bananas increased by X% a year on average, reaching $X billion. Last year, organic bananas assumed only an X% share of the U.S. market ($X million). Due to excess demand over supply, however, IndexBox analysts forecast that this figure may rise to X% in the medium term.
The organic banana market has not, to date, been able to fully realise its potential. From 2013-2015, its volume contracted at an average rate of X%, reaching X tonnes, while the consumption of conventional bananas increased at an average rate of X% (to X million tonnes). This trend pattern is directly associated with the USA's dependence on foreign imports of organic bananas.
In 2015, the share of U.S. growers in terms of the USA's banana consumption was recorded at less than X% (X thousand tonnes), while within the structure of banana output, the share of organic bananas amounted to only X%. This signals, that even if all the plantations were to start producing organic bananas, U.S. growers would only succeed in securing a small share of the market.
Therefore, the consumption of organic bananas is subject to fluctuation, in line with their imports volume. From 2013-2015, Guatemala and Honduras reduced exports from X to X tonnes. As a result, imports to the USA fell respectively (from X to X tonnes), as did the consumption of organic bananas (from X tonnes to X tonnes).
IndexBox analysts maintain that the extraction of organic bananas from Guatemala and Honduras from the U.S. market was mandatory. Growers in Guatemala and Honduras were forced to treat the banana crops with fungicide to prevent the banana plantations from being infected with Black Sigatoka (a fungal infection that can lead to the total loss of the crop). As a result, the bananas grown here forfeited their status as an organic product.
Growers from Guatemala and Honduras managed to offset any losses incurred, through the export of non-organic bananas to the U.S. market; exports increased by X% (to X million tonnes) and X% (to X tonnes) respectively, from 2013-2015. This growth increase was achieved mainly by exporting bananas that had lost their status as an organic product. The vacant niche in the U.S. organic banana market was partially assumed by growers from Peru and the Domincan Republic, as they raised exports by X% (to X tonnes) and X% (to X tonnes), respectively. The growers from Guatemala and the Dominican Republic were successful in this regard, due to the climatic conditions that prevented the Black Sigatoka fungus from spreading too widely. Ecuador and Mexico also stepped up exports of organic bananas, by X% to X tonnes and by X% to X tonnes, respectively. Typically, in 2015, over X% of imports from Peru and the Dominican Republic consisted of organic bananas, whereas imports from Ecuador and Mexico were dominated by non-organic bananas (Table X).
IndexBox analysts forecast that the U.S. consumption of organic bananas is set to increase by at least X% a year in the medium term. Guatemala and Honduras being slow to resume the cultivation and production of organic bananas may curb market development. In this event, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador and the Dominican Republic will vie for the top spot on the U.S. market.
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