Vaccine Market

The global vaccine market is expected to experience a decrease in consumption over the next eight years, with market volume projected to drop to 307K tons by 2030. Pakistan leads in vaccine consumption, with an average annual growth rate of +47.1%, and also dominates in imports with a CAGR of +46.7%. Belgium is the largest market for imported vaccines, while Belgium and Ireland are the top exporters of vaccines for human medicine.

Market Forecast

The vaccine market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -2.5% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 307K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $138.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Vaccines For Human Medicine

In 2022, the amount of vaccines for human medicine consumed worldwide soared to 376K tons, with an increase of 98% against 2021 figures. In general, consumption saw a strong increase. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global vaccine market revenue totaled $95B in 2022, rising by 2.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a remarkable increase. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

Pakistan (216K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of vaccine consumption, comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, vaccine consumption in Pakistan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (28K tons), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (20K tons), with a 5.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Pakistan totaled +47.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (+8.3% per year) and the United States (+10.1% per year).

In value terms, China ($27.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Pakistan ($12.6B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the vaccine market expanded at an average annual rate of +14.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Pakistan (+46.1% per year) and the United States (+7.4% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of vaccine per capita consumption was registered in Pakistan (940 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Spain (164 kg per 1000 persons), Japan (124 kg per 1000 persons) and the United States (60 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of vaccine was estimated at 48 kg per 1000 persons.

In Pakistan, vaccine per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +44.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+16.1% per year) and Japan (+7.4% per year).

Production

World Production of Vaccines For Human Medicine

In 2022, the amount of vaccines for human medicine produced worldwide stood at 167K tons, almost unchanged from the year before. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 31%. Global production peaked at 168K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, vaccine production reached $74.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a strong increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 26%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $75.8B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (28K tons), the United States (24K tons) and Ireland (20K tons), together comprising 42% of global production. France, Japan, India, Russia, Indonesia, Germany, the UK, South Korea, Turkey and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 47%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +8.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Vaccines For Human Medicine

For the fifth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in supplies from abroad of vaccines for human medicine, which increased by 198% to 275K tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw significant growth. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, vaccine imports fell notably to $74.4B in 2022. In general, imports posted buoyant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 206% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $106.4B, and then shrank rapidly in the following year.

Imports By Country

Pakistan prevails in imports structure, recording 216K tons, which was approx. 78% of total imports in 2022. Belgium (12K tons), Spain (6.9K tons) and the Netherlands (4.6K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

Pakistan was also the fastest-growing in terms of the vaccines for human medicine imports, with a CAGR of +46.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Spain (+27.3%), the Netherlands (+14.3%) and Belgium (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Pakistan increased by +67 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Belgium ($9.4B) constitutes the largest market for imported vaccines for human medicine worldwide, comprising 13% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Pakistan ($4.3B), with a 5.8% share of global imports. It was followed by Spain, with a 5.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Belgium stood at +4.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Pakistan (+33.5% per year) and Spain (+30.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average vaccine import price amounted to $270,527 per ton, falling by -76.5% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a abrupt downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 77%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,152,554 per ton, and then fell significantly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($792,516 per ton), while Pakistan ($19,901 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+2.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Vaccines For Human Medicine

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was decline in shipments abroad of vaccines for human medicine, when their volume decreased by -3.6% to 67K tons. In general, total exports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +64.5% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 40%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 70K tons in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

In value terms, vaccine exports contracted notably to $59.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 229% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $103.6B, and then reduced remarkably in the following year.

Exports By Country

Ireland (18K tons), France (14K tons) and Belgium (12K tons) represented roughly 66% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by the United States (5.6K tons), India (4K tons) and the Netherlands (3.8K tons), together making up a 20% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Belgium ($21.4B) remains the largest vaccine supplier worldwide, comprising 36% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($7.9B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by France, with an 8.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Belgium amounted to +17.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+12.1% per year) and France (+2.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average vaccine export price amounted to $892,984 per ton, dropping by -40% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a resilient increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 207%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1,488,498 per ton, and then plummeted in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($1,757,269 per ton), while India ($147,773 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+11.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform