Triticale Market

The global triticale market is projected to experience growth in consumption and value terms, with Poland leading both in consumption and production. The market is driven by increasing demand worldwide, with forecasts showing continued growth over the next eight years. Consumption and production trends, as well as import and export statistics, are detailed in the article.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for triticale worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 16M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Triticale

In 2022, consumption of triticale decreased by -0.5% to 14M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 17M tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global triticale market revenue fell modestly to $4.1B in 2022, declining by -1.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $5B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

Poland (4.8M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of triticale consumption, accounting for 35% of total volume. Moreover, triticale consumption in Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (2.2M tons), twofold. France (1.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 10% share.

In Poland, triticale consumption increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Germany (-0.8% per year) and France (-4.1% per year).

In value terms, the largest triticale markets worldwide were Poland ($1.1B), Belarus ($568M) and Germany ($500M), with a combined 53% share of the global market. Spain, France, Austria, Turkey, China and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +11.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of triticale per capita consumption in 2022 were Poland (128 kg per person), Belarus (127 kg per person) and Austria (34 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +13.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Triticale

In 2022, production of triticale decreased by -0.6% to 14M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 17%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 17M tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, triticale production fell modestly to $4.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $5.1B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of triticale production was Poland (5.4M tons), comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, triticale production in Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (1.9M tons), threefold. France (1.6M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 11% share.

In Poland, triticale production expanded at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-1.7% per year) and France (-3.5% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average triticale yield expanded modestly to 3.9 tons per ha, growing by 2.2% compared with the year before. In general, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the yield increased by 9.2% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 4.1 tons per ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global triticale harvested area fell modestly to 3.6M ha, which is down by -2.8% against the year before. Over the period under review, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 8.1%. The global harvested area peaked at 4.3M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Triticale

In 2022, the amount of triticale imported worldwide declined to 850K tons, waning by -7.1% against 2021 figures. Overall, imports, however, posted a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 139%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 1.1M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, triticale imports skyrocketed to $286M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 129%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Germany represented the major importing country with an import of about 345K tons, which accounted for 41% of total imports. Spain (208K tons) held a 25% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (16%) and Italy (7.5%). The following importers - Austria (17K tons) and Portugal (13K tons) - each accounted for a 3.5% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Portugal (with a CAGR of +45.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($119M), Spain ($67M) and the Netherlands ($43M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 80% share of global imports.

Spain, with a CAGR of +33.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average triticale import price stood at $336 per ton in 2022, surging by 32% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Austria ($360 per ton) and Portugal ($349 per ton), while the Netherlands ($314 per ton) and Spain ($323 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+1.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Triticale

In 2022, global exports of triticale shrank to 1M tons, reducing by -7.7% compared with the previous year. Overall, exports, however, posted a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 139%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 1.5M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, triticale exports soared to $345M in 2022. In general, exports, however, recorded prominent growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 128% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Poland represented the main exporter of triticale in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 618K tons, which was near 60% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by France (155K tons) and Germany (124K tons), together constituting a 27% share of total exports. Lithuania (43K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Poland was also the fastest-growing in terms of the triticale exports, with a CAGR of +22.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, France (+9.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Lithuania (-9.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Poland increased by +44 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Poland ($212M) remains the largest triticale supplier worldwide, comprising 61% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by France ($49M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Poland stood at +25.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: France (+10.2% per year) and Germany (+0.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average triticale export price amounted to $337 per ton, surging by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, triticale export price increased by +68.9% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Poland ($343 per ton) and Lithuania ($323 per ton), while France ($318 per ton) and Germany ($323 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform