Soya Bean Market

The global soya bean market is expected to continue an upward trend in consumption, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.4% in volume and +4.8% in value from 2022 to 2030. Despite a decrease in consumption in 2022, the market is projected to reach 451M tons and $278.3B by 2030. China, the United States, and Brazil are the top consuming countries, while Brazil, the United States, and Argentina are the top producers. Import and export trends also show growth, with China leading imports and Brazil leading exports. The average soya bean yield and harvested area are expected to increase in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for soya beans worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 451M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $278.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Soya Bean

In 2022, consumption of soya beans decreased by -7.6% to 345M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 374M tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

The global soya bean market revenue dropped modestly to $191.1B in 2022, waning by -3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $202.5B. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (111M tons), the United States (60M tons) and Brazil (42M tons), with a combined 62% share of global consumption. Argentina, India and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 18%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +12.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($68.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($27.7B). It was followed by Brazil.

In China, the soya bean market increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+2.8% per year) and Brazil (+1.8% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of soya bean per capita consumption was registered in Argentina (909 kg per person), followed by Brazil (196 kg per person), the United States (178 kg per person) and China (78 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of soya bean was estimated at 44 kg per person.

In Argentina, soya bean per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Brazil (+1.5% per year) and the United States (+3.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Soya Bean

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in production of soya beans, when its volume decreased by -6.2% to 352M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 376M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a measured increase of the harvested area and slight growth in yield figures.

In value terms, soya bean production contracted to $174.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded measured growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 108% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $294.6B. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Brazil (121M tons), the United States (116M tons) and Argentina (44M tons), together comprising 80% of global production. China, India, Canada and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 13%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +13.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average soya bean yield contracted to 2.6 tons per ha in 2022, shrinking by -8.6% compared with the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the yield increased by 9.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average soya bean yield hit record highs at 2.9 tons per ha in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global soya bean harvested area expanded to 134M ha, growing by 2.6% compared with 2021 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the harvested area increased by 6%. The global harvested area peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports

World Imports of Soya Bean

Global soya bean imports shrank to 150M tons in 2022, with a decrease of -5.8% compared with the year before. In general, total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -8.5% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 164M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, soya bean imports expanded rapidly to $102.3B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +68.6% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 34%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

China prevails in imports structure, recording 91M tons, which was approx. 61% of total imports in 2022. The Netherlands (4M tons), Japan (3.5M tons), Germany (3.4M tons), Argentina (3.3M tons), Egypt (3.3M tons), Spain (3.2M tons), Turkey (3M tons), Thailand (3M tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (2.8M tons), Iran (2.7M tons) and Indonesia (2.3M tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to soya bean imports into China stood at +4.5%. At the same time, Argentina (+101.4%), Iran (+30.2%), Turkey (+9.8%), Egypt (+5.6%), the Netherlands (+3.7%), Thailand (+3.6%), Japan (+2.5%), Indonesia (+1.9%) and Taiwan (Chinese) (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Argentina emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +101.4% from 2012-2022. Germany and Spain experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Argentina (+2.2 p.p.) and Iran (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($61.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported soya beans worldwide, comprising 60% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($2.6B), with a 2.5% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 2.4% share.

In China, soya bean imports increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (+3.6% per year) and the Netherlands (+4.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average soya bean import price amounted to $681 per ton, rising by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, soya bean import price increased by +69.8% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 38%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Japan ($736 per ton) and Indonesia ($700 per ton), while Iran ($592 per ton) and the Netherlands ($604 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+1.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Soya Bean

In 2022, shipments abroad of soya beans decreased by -2.5% to 157M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after seven years of growth. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -9.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 47%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 173M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, soya bean exports skyrocketed to $94.1B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +70.0% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 21%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Brazil (79M tons) and the United States (57M tons) dominates exports structure, together creating 86% of total exports. The following exporters - Argentina (5.2M tons), Canada (4.3M tons) and Uruguay (3.1M tons) - together made up 8% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +9.3%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($46.7B), the United States ($34.5B) and Argentina ($3.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 89% share of global exports.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +10.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average soya bean export price stood at $598 per ton in 2022, growing by 24% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 39%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $774 per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Canada ($632 per ton) and Uruguay ($627 per ton), while Brazil ($591 per ton) and Argentina ($593 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uruguay (+1.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform