Rice Market

The global rice market is expected to see an upward consumption trend over the next eight years, with market performance forecasted to increase at a CAGR of +1.2% for volume and +3.2% for value from 2022 to 2030. China, India, and Bangladesh are the top consumers of rice, while India, China, and Vietnam are the leading producers. Imports and exports of rice are also on the rise, with semi-milled or wholly milled rice being the most traded type. Overall, the rice market shows potential for steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for rice worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 851M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $458.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rice

In 2022, consumption of rice decreased by -1.6% to 772M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 784M tons in 2021, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

The global rice market size shrank slightly to $356.1B in 2022, reducing by -2.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption saw a slight curtailment. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $424.1B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (213M tons), India (174M tons) and Bangladesh (58M tons), with a combined 58% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +1.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rice markets worldwide were China ($100.3B), Bangladesh ($63.9B) and the Philippines ($27.4B), together accounting for 54% of the global market. Vietnam, Thailand, India, Myanmar and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 16%.

India, with a CAGR of +7.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of rice per capita consumption in 2022 were Myanmar (408 kg per person), Thailand (380 kg per person) and Vietnam (369 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +0.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Rice

After two years of growth, production of rice decreased by -1.4% to 778M tons in 2022. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the production volume increased by 2.5%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 789M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, rice production shrank slightly to $336.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production saw a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 7.6%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $438.3B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (208M tons), India (196M tons) and Bangladesh (57M tons), with a combined 59% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +2.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average rice yield reduced slightly to 4.7 tons per ha in 2022, remaining relatively unchanged against 2021 figures. In general, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the yield increased by 1.9% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 4.7 tons per ha in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Harvested Area

The global rice harvested area declined slightly to 165M ha in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021 figures. In general, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 2.6%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to rice production reached the peak figure at 166M ha in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Rice

In 2022, overseas purchases of rice increased by 6.8% to 52M tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, rice imports expanded notably to $29.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (6.5M tons), distantly followed by Iraq (2.1M tons), Cote d'Ivoire (2.1M tons), Senegal (1.6M tons), Benin (1.6M tons), the United States (1.3M tons), Iran (1.3M tons), Malaysia (1.2M tons), the Philippines (1.1M tons), South Africa (1M tons), the United Arab Emirates (1M tons), Bangladesh (1M tons) and Nepal (0.9M tons) represented the main importers of rice, together generating 43% of total imports. Iraq (2.1M tons), Cote d'Ivoire (2.1M tons), Senegal (1.6M tons), Benin (1.6M tons), the United States (1.3M tons), Iran (1.3M tons), Malaysia (1.2M tons), the Philippines (1.1M tons), South Africa (1M tons), the United Arab Emirates (1M tons), Bangladesh (1M tons) and Nepal (0.9M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +10.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Benin (+10.9%), Nepal (+8.9%), the United States (+7.6%), Iraq (+4.3%), Cote d'Ivoire (+4.0%), Malaysia (+2.1%), the United Arab Emirates (+1.4%), South Africa (+1.3%), the Philippines (+1.1%) and Senegal (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Benin emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.9% from 2012-2022. Iran experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Bangladesh (-3.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China and Benin increased by +6.2 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($2.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported rice worldwide, comprising 9.3% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Philippines ($1.3B), with a 4.3% share of global imports. It was followed by Iran, with a 4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +9.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Philippines (+11.6% per year) and Iran (-0.2% per year).

Imports By Type

In 2022, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (36M tons) was the largest type of rice, generating 70% of total imports. Broken rice (9.9M tons) held a 19% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by husked (brown) rice (5.9%) and paddy rice (5.4%).

Imports of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, broken rice (+6.7%) and husked (brown) rice (+3.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, broken rice emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.7% from 2012-2022. Paddy rice experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of broken rice (+5.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (-3.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($22.4B) constitutes the largest type of rice imported worldwide, comprising 76% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by broken rice ($3.8B), with a 13% share of global imports. It was followed by husked (brown) rice, with a 7.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice imports totaled +1.3%. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (+4.7% per year) and husked (brown) rice (+3.6% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average rice import price amounted to $563 per ton, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a mild slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 7.5%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $647 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($705 per ton), while the price for broken rice ($380 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by brown rice (+0.3%), while the other products experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average rice import price amounted to $563 per ton, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a mild contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 7.5%. Global import price peaked at $647 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Philippines ($1,119 per ton), while Nepal ($353 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+10.4%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Rice

In 2022, shipments abroad of rice increased by 8.9% to 58M tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 16% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, rice exports rose sharply to $30.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 19% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, India (22M tons) was the main exporter of rice, constituting 38% of total exports. Thailand (7.7M tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Vietnam (6.6M tons) and Pakistan (4.6M tons). All these countries together held near 32% share of total exports. The United States (2.5M tons), China (2.2M tons), Myanmar (2.2M tons), Brazil (1.7M tons) and Uruguay (1.1M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to rice exports from India stood at +7.7%. At the same time, China (+23.0%), Myanmar (+14.7%), Brazil (+4.2%), Pakistan (+3.0%) and Thailand (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +23.0% from 2012-2022. Uruguay experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Vietnam (-2.0%) and the United States (-4.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India, China and Myanmar increased by +12, +3.1 and +2.4 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($10.8B) remains the largest rice supplier worldwide, comprising 35% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Thailand ($3.9B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Vietnam, with an 11% share.

In India, rice exports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Thailand (-1.6% per year) and Vietnam (-1.4% per year).

Exports By Type

Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice represented the key type of rice in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 44M tons, which was approx. 75% of total exports in 2022. Broken rice (8.9M tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by paddy rice (3.1M tons). All these products together took near 21% share of total exports. Husked (brown) rice (2.6M tons) held a minor share of total exports.

Exports of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, broken rice (+8.3%), paddy rice (+2.0%) and husked (brown) rice (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, broken rice emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.3% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of broken rice increased by +5.5 percentage points. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($24.3B) remains the largest type of rice supplied worldwide, comprising 80% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by broken rice ($3.2B), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by husked (brown) rice, with a 5.5% share.

For semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice, exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: broken rice (+6.4% per year) and husked (brown) rice (+2.3% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average rice export price amounted to $520 per ton, with an increase of 1.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a slight slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 8.2%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $625 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($659 per ton), while the average price for exports of broken rice ($360 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by brown rice (+0.8%), while the other products experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average rice export price stood at $520 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 1.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a slight contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 8.2%. The global export price peaked at $625 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($688 per ton), while Myanmar ($365 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+2.4%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform