Rape And Colza Seed Market

The article provides an in-depth analysis of the global market for rape or colza seed, forecasting trends in consumption, production, imports, and exports. It outlines the expected growth in market volume and value, as well as key players in the industry such as China, Canada, and Germany. The data shows a consistent increase in consumption, production, and trade of rape or colza seed, with fluctuating trends in prices and per capita consumption across different countries. Overall, the market is expected to see steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for rape or colza seed worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 95M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $121.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rape And Colza Seed

In 2022, consumption of rape or colza seed increased by 19% to 87M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global rape and colza seed market value expanded modestly to $91.1B in 2022, surging by 3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (17M tons), Canada (13M tons) and India (12M tons), together comprising 49% of global consumption. Germany, France, Russia, Poland, the United States, the UK and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +17.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($50.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($7B). It was followed by Canada.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +1.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Germany (+3.0% per year) and Canada (+6.1% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of rape and colza seed per capita consumption was registered in Canada (340 kg per person), followed by Germany (116 kg per person), Poland (110 kg per person) and France (73 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of rape and colza seed was estimated at 11 kg per person.

In Canada, rape and colza seed per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +7.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Germany (+0.6% per year) and Poland (+7.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Rape And Colza Seed

In 2022, production of rape or colza seed increased by 21% to 88M tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, production reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a temperate expansion of the harvested area and a slight increase in yield figures.

In value terms, rape and colza seed production reduced to $106.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $114.4B in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Canada (19M tons), China (16M tons) and India (12M tons), with a combined 53% share of global production. Australia, France, Russia, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, the United States and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +16.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average rape and colza seed yield stood at 2.2 tons per ha, increasing by 9.4% compared with the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the yield increased by 11%. The global yield peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Harvested Area

The global rape and colza seed harvested area expanded significantly to 40M ha in 2022, with an increase of 10% on 2021. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports

World Imports of Rape And Colza Seed

In 2022, approx. 23M tons of rape or colza seed were imported worldwide; reducing by -3.6% compared with 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 16%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 25M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, rape and colza seed imports surged to $18B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +84.4% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 34% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (5.5M tons), distantly followed by Belgium (2.4M tons), Japan (2.1M tons), China (2M tons), the Netherlands (1.7M tons), France (1.4M tons), Mexico (1.1M tons) and Poland (1M tons) were the main importers of rape or colza seed, together generating 75% of total imports. The following importers - the United Arab Emirates (878K tons), the UK (811K tons), the United States (662K tons) and Romania (398K tons) - together made up 12% of total imports.

Imports into Germany increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the UK (+45.9%), Romania (+20.9%), France (+11.5%), Poland (+8.3%), the United States (+4.6%) and the United Arab Emirates (+3.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the UK emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +45.9% from 2012-2022. The Netherlands and Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-1.4%), Mexico (-3.4%) and China (-3.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. France (+3.8 p.p.), Germany (+3.5 p.p.), the UK (+3.5 p.p.) and Poland (+2.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Belgium, Japan, Mexico and China saw its share reduced by -1.8%, -2.6%, -2.9% and -5.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($4.4B) constitutes the largest market for imported rape or colza seed worldwide, comprising 25% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($2B), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Germany stood at +5.6%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (+1.4% per year) and Belgium (+1.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average rape and colza seed import price stood at $791 per ton in 2022, picking up by 25% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, rape and colza seed import price increased by +77.4% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 40%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($930 per ton), while the United States ($590 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+3.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Rape And Colza Seed

In 2022, approx. 24M tons of rape or colza seed were exported worldwide; increasing by 2.2% on the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 25%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 25M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, rape and colza seed exports soared to $17.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +101.2% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 30%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Australia (6.5M tons) and Canada (5.7M tons) represented the main exporters of rape or colza seed in 2022, reaching approx. 27% and 24% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by Ukraine (3.1M tons), the Netherlands (1.1M tons) and Belgium (1.1M tons), together mixing up a 23% share of total exports. Romania (1,019K tons), France (983K tons), Lithuania (638K tons), Hungary (463K tons), the Czech Republic (374K tons) and Poland (365K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Romania (with a CAGR of +31.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rape and colza seed supplying countries worldwide were Australia ($5.1B), Canada ($4.4B) and Ukraine ($1.6B), together comprising 62% of global exports. Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Romania, Lithuania, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Romania, with a CAGR of +29.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average rape and colza seed export price stood at $757 per ton in 2022, jumping by 22% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, rape and colza seed export price increased by +71.5% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 41% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($966 per ton), while Ukraine ($495 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform