Lamb and Sheep Meat Market

The global lamb and sheep meat market is projected to show growth in market volume and value over the next eight years, expanding at a CAGR of +1.5% and +3.6% respectively. China leads in both consumption and production, with the market seeing an increase in demand worldwide. Major exporting countries include Australia and New Zealand, while key importers are China and the United States. Frozen sheep cuts and fresh or chilled lamb carcasses are prominent in both exports and imports. Overall, the market is expected to see steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for lamb and sheep meat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 11M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $102.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lamb and Sheep Meat

Global lamb and sheep meat consumption expanded to 10M tons in 2022, increasing by 2.4% against the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global lamb and sheep meat market size fell to $77.1B in 2022, with a decrease of -3.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $79.7B in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of lamb and sheep meat consumption was China (3M tons), accounting for 30% of total volume. Moreover, lamb and sheep meat consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Turkey (485K tons), sixfold. Algeria (347K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 3.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +3.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Turkey (+8.2% per year) and Algeria (+2.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($29.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Turkey ($4B). It was followed by Algeria.

In China, the lamb and sheep meat market expanded at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Turkey (+5.5% per year) and Algeria (+3.2% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of lamb and sheep meat per capita consumption was registered in Mongolia (57 kg per person), followed by Chad (13 kg per person), Australia (9.5 kg per person) and Algeria (7.7 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lamb and sheep meat was estimated at 1.3 kg per person.

In Mongolia, lamb and sheep meat per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +9.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Chad (+4.6% per year) and Australia (-0.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Lamb and Sheep Meat

For the fifth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of lamb and sheep meat, which increased by 2.4% to 10M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 2.8%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, lamb and sheep meat production dropped to $77.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 22% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $83.3B in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of lamb and sheep meat production was China (2.7M tons), accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, lamb and sheep meat production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Australia (707K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Turkey (489K tons), with a 4.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +2.6%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Australia (+2.5% per year) and Turkey (+8.3% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of lamb and sheep meat dropped modestly to 16 kg per head, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Overall, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 1.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average lamb and sheep meat yield reached the peak level at 17 kg per head in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Producing Animals

The global number of animals slaughtered for lamb and sheep meat production expanded modestly to 637M heads in 2022, surging by 2.5% against the previous year. This number increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the number of producing animals increased by 3.5%. Over the period under review, this number attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports

World Imports of Lamb and Sheep Meat

In 2022, approx. 1.2M tons of lamb and sheep meat were imported worldwide; increasing by 4.4% against 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lamb and sheep meat imports reached $9.2B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +29.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 21%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

China was the key importer of lamb and sheep meat in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 358K tons, which was near 29% of total imports in 2022. The United States (144K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by France (114K tons). All these countries together held near 21% share of total imports. The UK (54K tons), Malaysia (43K tons), Germany (41K tons), the United Arab Emirates (40K tons), the Netherlands (32K tons), Canada (28K tons), Italy (25K tons), Papua New Guinea (24K tons), South Korea (24K tons) and Qatar (23K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +11.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, South Korea (+17.7%), the United States (+8.7%), Malaysia (+8.0%), Canada (+6.4%), the Netherlands (+5.9%), Papua New Guinea (+4.9%), Germany (+2.5%), Qatar (+1.3%) and the United Arab Emirates (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Korea emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +17.7% from 2012-2022. Italy and France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the UK (-4.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+16 p.p.) and the United States (+4.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of France (-2.4 p.p.) and the UK (-5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest lamb and sheep meat importing markets worldwide were China ($2.1B), the United States ($1.5B) and France ($918M), together comprising 48% of global imports. Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, South Korea, Italy, Qatar and Papua New Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

Among the main importing countries, South Korea, with a CAGR of +24.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) (587K tons) represented the largest type of lamb and sheep meat, making up 48% of total imports. Fresh or chilled lamb carcasses and half-carcasses (162K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 13% share, followed by frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (11%), fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) (9.3%), frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (6.2%) and fresh or chilled sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (4.9%). Fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (51K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) imports of stood at +4.3%. At the same time, frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (+9.4%), fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (+3.1%), fresh or chilled lamb carcasses and half-carcasses (+2.1%) and frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.4% from 2012-2022. Fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) and fresh or chilled sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) and frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses increased by +5.6 and +2.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) ($4B) constitutes the largest type of lamb and sheep meat imported worldwide, comprising 43% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) ($1.4B), with a 15% share of global imports. It was followed by frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts, with a 13% share.

For frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), imports expanded at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the period from 2012-2022. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) (+3.0% per year) and frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (+4.6% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average lamb and sheep meat import price amounted to $7,600 per ton, growing by 5.5% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts ($12,251 per ton), while the price for frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses ($4,364 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (+3.5%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lamb and sheep meat import price amounted to $7,600 per ton, surging by 5.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($11,809 per ton), while Papua New Guinea ($2,978 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+5.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lamb and Sheep Meat

Global lamb and sheep meat exports rose to 1.2M tons in 2022, increasing by 4.3% compared with 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.9%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, lamb and sheep meat exports reached $9.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +28.2% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Australia (458K tons) and New Zealand (374K tons) represented roughly 67% of total exports in 2022. The UK (75K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 6.1% share, followed by Ireland (4.6%). The following exporters - France (54K tons), Spain (46K tons) and the Netherlands (33K tons) - together made up 11% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by France (with a CAGR of +21.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($3.2B), New Zealand ($2.7B) and the UK ($609M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 72% of global exports. Ireland, France, the Netherlands and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

Among the main exporting countries, France, with a CAGR of +24.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) represented the key type of lamb and sheep meat in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 589K tons, which was near 48% of total exports in 2022. Fresh or chilled lamb carcasses and half-carcasses (202K tons) held a 16% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (11%), fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) (10%) and frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (4.6%). The following types - fresh or chilled sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (52K tons) and fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (50K tons) - each reached an 8.2% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) exports of stood at +2.7%. At the same time, frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (+7.1%), fresh or chilled lamb carcasses and half-carcasses (+4.3%) and fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +7.1% from 2012-2022. Fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, fresh or chilled sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (-1.5%) and frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (-3.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) (+5.2 p.p.), fresh or chilled lamb carcasses and half-carcasses (+3.9 p.p.) and frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses (+1.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) (-1.6 p.p.) and frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (-7.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) ($3.7B) remains the largest type of lamb and sheep meat supplied worldwide, comprising 40% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by fresh or chilled lamb carcasses and half-carcasses ($1.6B), with a 17% share of global exports. It was followed by fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), with a 15% share.

For frozen sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), exports expanded at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2012-2022. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: fresh or chilled lamb carcasses and half-carcasses (+6.6% per year) and fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) (+3.5% per year).

Export Prices By Type

The average lamb and sheep meat export price stood at $7,373 per ton in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.5%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 19%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $7,377 per ton, leveling off in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was fresh or chilled sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts ($12,317 per ton), while the average price for exports of frozen sheep (excluding lamb) carcasses and half-carcasses ($4,910 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by frozen sheep (including lamb) boneless cuts (+8.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average lamb and sheep meat export price stood at $7,373 per ton in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 19%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $7,377 per ton, leveling off in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($11,591 per ton), while Spain ($6,588 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by New Zealand (+4.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform