Avocado Market

Driven by increasing demand for avocados worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend with a forecasted CAGR of +3.2% in volume and +5.0% in value from 2022 to 2030. Mexico, the United States, and Colombia lead in both consumption and market value. Global avocado production, imports, and exports also show positive trends over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for avocados worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $28.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Avocados

For the eleventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in consumption of avocados, which increased by 4.7% to 9.1M tons in 2022. In general, the total consumption indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +96.0% against 2012 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

The global avocado market value rose modestly to $19.3B in 2022, surging by 2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption saw prominent growth. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Mexico (1.5M tons), the United States (1.2M tons) and Colombia (993K tons), together comprising 41% of global consumption. The Dominican Republic, Indonesia, Kenya, Brazil, Peru, Vietnam, China, Haiti, Ethiopia and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Ethiopia (with a CAGR of +20.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mexico ($3.7B), the United States ($3.4B) and Colombia ($1.7B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 46% share of the global market. The Dominican Republic, China, Kenya, Vietnam, Brazil, Peru, Indonesia, Spain, Ethiopia and Haiti lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

Ethiopia, with a CAGR of +30.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of avocado per capita consumption was registered in the Dominican Republic (62 kg per person), followed by Colombia (19 kg per person), Haiti (15 kg per person) and Mexico (11 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of avocado was estimated at 1.2 kg per person.

In the Dominican Republic, avocado per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +8.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Colombia (+13.3% per year) and Haiti (+6.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Avocados

In 2022, global production of avocados expanded sharply to 9M tons, increasing by 5.1% against the year before. Over the period under review, the total production indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +96.7% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 9.9%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a remarkable increase of the harvested area and modest growth in yield figures.

In value terms, avocado production fell to $18.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 24%. Global production peaked at $18.9B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of avocado production was Mexico (2.5M tons), accounting for 28% of total volume. Moreover, avocado production in Mexico exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Colombia (1.1M tons), twofold. Peru (866K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.6% share.

In Mexico, avocado production expanded at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Colombia (+15.6% per year) and Peru (+12.4% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of avocados fell modestly to 10 tons per ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the yield increased by 4.5%. Over the period under review, the average avocado yield attained the maximum level at 10 tons per ha in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of avocados production worldwide expanded markedly to 884K ha, increasing by 5.3% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, the total harvested area indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its figure increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, avocado harvested area increased by +76.9% against 2012 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the harvested area increased by 10% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports

World Imports of Avocados

After ten years of growth, overseas purchases of avocados decreased by -3.5% to 3.1M tons in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 20%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 3.2M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, avocado imports shrank slightly to $8.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $8.3B in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Imports By Country

The United States represented the key importing country with an import of around 1.1M tons, which finished at 37% of total imports. The Netherlands (463K tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Spain (210K tons) and France (201K tons). All these countries together held approx. 28% share of total imports. Germany (131K tons), the UK (116K tons), Canada (99K tons), Chile (60K tons) and Japan (51K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +8.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Chile (+56.0%), Spain (+20.0%), the Netherlands (+17.1%), Germany (+16.3%), the UK (+11.9%), France (+7.8%) and Canada (+7.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Chile emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +56.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Japan (-1.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the Netherlands, Spain, Chile and Germany increased by +6.4, +3.7, +1.9 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($3.3B) constitutes the largest market for imported avocados worldwide, comprising 40% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($1.2B), with a 15% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 6.6% share.

In the United States, avocado imports increased at an average annual rate of +13.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+20.5% per year) and France (+10.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average avocado import price amounted to $2,645 per ton, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 18% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $2,926 per ton. From 2018 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($3,129 per ton), while Chile ($1,171 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Avocados

After ten years of growth, overseas shipments of avocados decreased by -2.7% to 3M tons in 2022. Overall, exports, however, saw a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 3.1M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, avocado exports dropped slightly to $7.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, enjoyed strong growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 33%. The global exports peaked at $8B in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Mexico (1M tons), distantly followed by Peru (630K tons), the Netherlands (413K tons) and Spain (150K tons) represented the key exporters of avocados, together comprising 73% of total exports. Chile (109K tons), Colombia (99K tons), Kenya (96K tons), South Africa (63K tons), the Dominican Republic (55K tons), Morocco (55K tons) and the United States (49K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Colombia (with a CAGR of +69.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mexico ($3.1B) remains the largest avocado supplier worldwide, comprising 40% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Peru ($1.4B), with an 18% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 14% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Mexico amounted to +13.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Peru (+21.8% per year) and the Netherlands (+19.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average avocado export price amounted to $2,596 per ton, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.3%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $2,778 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,035 per ton), while the Dominican Republic ($1,798 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform