Antibiotic Market

The global antibiotic market is forecasted to see continued growth in both consumption volume and market value over the next eight years. Consumption of antibiotics is expected to increase to 220K tons by 2030, with market performance expanding at a CAGR of +2.2% in volume and +4.5% in value terms from 2022 to 2030. China leads in both consumption and production of antibiotics, with the largest volume and value in the market. Global consumption peaked in 2022 with the highest levels of per capita consumption in the Netherlands. Despite fluctuations, global production and imports of antibiotics are expected to see gradual growth in the near future. Indian imports and Chinese exports are significant factors in the global antibiotic market, with China dominating the exports structure. Italy and the United States are also key players in the export market. Overall, the global market for antibiotics is anticipated to experience steady growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for antibiotics worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 220K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $23B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Antibiotics

In 2022, global consumption of antibiotics amounted to 184K tons, picking up by 1.8% compared with the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 185K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global antibiotic market revenue reached $16.2B in 2022, with an increase of 6.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

China (37K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of antibiotic consumption, comprising approx. 20% of total volume. Moreover, antibiotic consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (14K tons), threefold. The United States (14K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +6.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+5.1% per year) and the United States (+4.3% per year).

In value terms, Japan ($2.5B), China ($1.5B) and Italy ($1.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 33% share of the global market. The United States, India, Brazil, Germany, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, the Netherlands, the UK and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

Among the main consuming countries, Russia, with a CAGR of +13.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of antibiotic per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (237 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Italy (101 kg per 1000 persons), Germany (62 kg per 1000 persons) and South Korea (62 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of antibiotic was estimated at 24 kg per 1000 persons.

In the Netherlands, antibiotic per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Italy (-3.7% per year) and Germany (+0.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Antibiotics

In 2022, the amount of antibiotics produced worldwide was estimated at 180K tons, remaining relatively unchanged against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 7.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

In value terms, antibiotic production totaled $14.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 15%. Global production peaked at $14.6B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (114K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of antibiotic production, comprising approx. 64% of total volume. Moreover, antibiotic production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (13K tons), ninefold. Spain (7.9K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.4% share.

In China, antibiotic production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+5.9% per year) and Spain (+0.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Antibiotics

In 2022, supplies from abroad of antibiotics decreased by -4.7% to 130K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, imports showed a slight contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 2.6%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 150K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, antibiotic imports expanded modestly to $11.4B in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 8.9%. Global imports peaked at $14.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2022, India (25K tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (11K tons) and Brazil (8.6K tons) represented the main importers of antibiotics, together comprising 34% of total imports. The following importers - the United States (4.6K tons), Italy (4.3K tons), Spain (4.1K tons), the UK (4K tons), Thailand (3.4K tons), Belgium (3K tons), Russia (2.7K tons), Colombia (2.7K tons), Canada (2.6K tons) and Mexico (2.5K tons) - together made up 26% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to antibiotic imports into India stood at +2.5%. At the same time, Russia (+11.3%), Colombia (+8.2%), the Netherlands (+3.0%), Mexico (+1.7%), Belgium (+1.5%), Canada (+1.3%) and Brazil (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Russia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +11.3% from 2012-2022. Thailand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the UK (-4.4%), Spain (-4.7%), the United States (-7.7%) and Italy (-8.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India, the Netherlands and Brazil increased by +6.2, +3 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest antibiotic importing markets worldwide were India ($1.6B), Italy ($1.2B) and the United States ($743M), with a combined 31% share of global imports. The Netherlands, Belgium, Brazil, Spain, the UK, Russia, Mexico, Canada, Thailand and Colombia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

Russia, with a CAGR of +10.5%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average antibiotic import price amounted to $88,142 per ton, increasing by 8.4% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 13%. Global import price peaked at $94,215 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($279,115 per ton), while Colombia ($35,645 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Antibiotics

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded decline in overseas shipments of antibiotics, which decreased by -5.6% to 125K tons in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a perceptible descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 2.3%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 165K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, antibiotic exports stood at $10.3B in 2022. Overall, exports showed a mild curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 3.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $12.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, reaching 78K tons, which was approx. 63% of total exports in 2022. India (11K tons) took an 8.6% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Spain (7.3%) and the Netherlands (5.8%). The following exporters - the United States (3.2K tons), Italy (3K tons) and Belgium (2.2K tons) - together made up 6.7% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to antibiotic exports from China stood at -1.5%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+5.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +5.7% from 2012-2022. India and Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Spain (-1.7%), Italy (-7.0%) and the United States (-9.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+7.5 p.p.), the Netherlands (+3.2 p.p.) and India (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the United States saw its share reduced by -2.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.3B) remains the largest antibiotic supplier worldwide, comprising 42% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($929M), with a 9% share of global exports. It was followed by Italy, with a 7.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +4.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: India (+0.5% per year) and Italy (-0.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average antibiotic export price amounted to $82,676 per ton, surging by 10% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 15% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($253,093 per ton), while Spain ($40,357 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+6.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform